Two Fisted Slopper

Pre-Offseason Ruminations

2010-09-27T19:31:00.001-05:00

My Brewers fandom has been lacking this season. The fact that I didn't have cable for the first time since the '99 season didn't help, but from the onset I knew that the Brewers were, at best, a .500 team this year. Nothing inspired me to write (although I could have made some noise about Corey Hart and how he should have been traded earlier … now it looks like the Brewers are stuck with him).

As the 2010 season closes, this Dave Cameron piece at Fangraphs tamped down my expectations for the offseason. Fielder is likely to be moved, as expected, but because of the article I'm wary of the return. The rumor around the internets for many years has been a straight up Fielder for Matt Cain move, but now that seems unlikely. Cain is a key part of a resurgent Giants team and in no way leaving the San Francisco, so I'm at a loss for which pitcher the Brewers can obtain and be a playoff-like team for the next 3-4 years.

Plenty of coulda/shouldas can be brought up here, but my short research list is to find lumbering first basemen and what they were netted in trades. Fielder is definitely worth something of value, but with such a glaring organization need, his 2011 salary, and his imminent free agency, the Brewers could be negotiated out of a deal and the same 2010 Brewers will appear next season.

BP T-shirt Toss

2010-06-09T10:00:00.002-05:00

Perhaps the Brewers should rethink the shooting of shirts with BP's logo on it. Unless it's to clean up a mess.

(Yes, I'm aware that BP probably paid for the promotion. I'm just saying those shirts should lay low for a while.)

Good Night, Funny Man

2010-06-07T20:52:00.004-05:00

By all accounts a good human being was laid off today and will be receiving $10mm to play elsewhere (and probably succeed). The size of Suppan's contract after an average pitching career doomed him in the court of public opinion. Aside from this season, I don't think he pitched any differently than he did before coming to the Brewers. Clearly the loss of a few MPH on this fastball did him in. That, and being old.

In other news, David Riske is coming back this week. Totally forgot about that guy.

Doug Davis

2010-04-07T13:42:00.000-05:00

Midseason form.

The Reason To Enjoy The Season

2010-04-02T20:35:00.002-05:00

Adam McCalvey and BCB have been busy this week, so I've done some light reading of all the reasons and hemming and hawing about the upcoming season. I haven't been able to focus completely on the articles (save for the irrational exuberance of the Shepherd Express cover page), but the general impression I have is that A) fans are high expectations of the team and B) critics don't think the team has enough.

I don't think they have what it takes to make the playoffs ... they'd have to win the NL Central and overcome both the Cardinals and Cubs (no small feat). I hold firm at 83 wins, but hope that it's more and the cards fall their way (Cards and Cubs falter, the pitching/defense combo pans out). However, I will be blinded by visions of grandeur because of this quote from Larry Granillo at Baseball Analysts earlier today:

How good is Yovani Gallardo? Let's just say that the Brewers aren't too far away from having two homegrown, legitimate MVP contenders and one homegrown, legitimate Cy Young contender playing together every year. I can't wait.

That's the reason I'll watch and enjoy this season and next.

Imma Back?

2010-03-28T21:56:00.003-05:00

I visited Al's Ramblings for the first time since last August ... of the 20 most recent postings, 12 were political. Exactly the reason why I stopped reading one of the few sites with good Brewers insight. Oh well, he can do what he wants.

I will renew my sparing dedication to this site with the start of the season, the grain elevator business has been crazy busy of late. For the record, I still think the Brewers are an 83 win team, so I'm trying my best to manage my expectations appropriately.

2010 Automatic Outs

2009-11-06T13:44:00.004-06:00

01 Corey Hart
02 Carlos Gomez
03 Alicides Escobar
04 Jason Kendall
05 Pitcher

So it's all in for pitching and defense next year? If so, better get some pitching.

Back (Sorta)

2009-09-26T14:18:00.003-05:00

It's not that I haven't paid attention to the Brewers, it's just that the team has become so frustratingly mediocre that it's not fun any longer. For much of the past three months I've said to myself "Who's blowing it now?" when I check the score. Unfortunately, it's been many.

In any case, a few major life events of this modest grain elevator manager have passed and I may contribute more to this site. Obviously the Brewers were limited in their moves this year, and just as I predicted out of spring training, this was going to be a buffer year before they officially "go for it" once again next season.

The glaring need is a starter who pitches innings ... and there's a few of them out there. I'm certain once the pain of the revolving door of starters and relievers is over this season, the team position will be clear to us all.

As for the Cardinals ... I don't know how they do it.

No Moves, Whew

2009-07-31T20:12:00.002-05:00

Although I'm going to suffer through another series of Claudio Vargas 5th inning blow ups, I'm pleased the Brewers didn't make any major moves ... their certainly were a bunch of silly ones this time around.

It would have been nice to get a pitcher who would be sticking around through next season, the real season the Brewers should be building for. However, nothing major is good, this off season needs to be spent addressing the pitching and/or conditioning of the arms here already.

Also, no need to ever worry about Cincy as long as Dusty Baker is there ... though you should already know that.

Tough Day for Suppan

2009-07-27T21:36:00.003-05:00

5.1 IP, 10 R, 10 H, 4 BB vs. the worst team in the league

The Hold Steady

2009-07-26T16:25:00.001-05:00

It's increasingly difficult to watch the Brewers lurch their way through the season, so I think the only winning move re: the trade deadline is not to play.

Recall that prior to the season, the predictions and regression analysis all spotted the team to hover around .500 through the season unless a handful of hitters have career years. Fielder is obviously on that pace, Weeks was until the injury, but Braun, Hardy, and Hart have diminished numbers compared to this point last year. The rotation is fraying and the bullpen has been hit or miss … I don't think this is going to be the year.

I recommend putting on a brave face for the rest of the season and let the Cubs & Cardinals, who have obviously sold the farm for success this season. Both teams seem to be snakebitten with injuries, so I'm not suggesting the Brewers are entirely out of playoff picture, but drastically overpaying for a starting pitcher for two months of service (or a season + two months in Halladay's case) does not appear to be a smart strategy. 90 wins could win the division, but the moment the Cards or Cubs figure it out, it will be 95.

The Brewers can get more worth from Gamel, Escobar, Hardy, or Weeks in the offseason (the Phillies did the right thing in rejecting the Jays' proposal). With a little luck, the Brewers can spin the excess hitters for solid, if unspectacular, starters and cajole Parra to get his head on straight. I think signing a starting pitcher is within the realm of possibility. Here are the pitchers available by trade or signing after the season if things stay static the next week:

Halladay (one year left on deal w/ Toronto)
Peavy (returned from injury, signed through 2012)
Bedard (injured, FA after this season)
Cliff Lee (FA)
Webb (FA)
Doug Davis (FA)
Harden (FA, if you can stomach it)
Millwood (FA)
Penny (FA)

That's a lot of pitchers seemingly available after 2009. Sign/trade for one of these guys, and that's a solid rotation, fuse new middle relievers in and that's a very good lineup for 2010 … but only if the urge to make moves is tamped down this week.

A Quick One

2009-07-01T18:04:00.003-05:00

Rough one today, but at least the Brewers one two of three from the Mets ... thus adding to their misery.

Just wanted to post this image drawn by Robert Ullman ... no doubt you've seen his work before, but he has an excellent blog where he offers up doodles, finished products, and whatever he wants. Check it out and support his work ... yesterday he drew one about some other state legend Brent or something.

A Starting Pitcher Appears

2009-06-30T21:01:00.001-05:00

Clearly the lucid dream of choice for die-hard Milwaukee Brewers fans has been the pick-up of either Jake Peavy or Erik Bedard to round out the rotation. That has fallen out of favor due to injuries to the two and void left in its wake … I refuse to believe Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, or Brad Penny would provide much of a difference. The face they're being mentioned as the next tier of available pitchers means they'll also be too costly.

I haven't noticed anything in Brewersdom about a pitcher hiding in front of our eyes for the past few years … Ian Snell. Thanks to this FanGraphs post, it became clear that Snell has worn out his welcome in Pittsburgh and the feeling is mutual. I don't know the Pirates' inclination to trade within the division (this deal may have soured them forever), but Melvin could make a case for Snell and hope for the best with the "change of scenery" qualifier that works about half the time.

As Dave Cameron at FanGraphs writes, Snell has a FIP of 4.56 … which means he's pitched much better than his ERA indicates. Snell has had his ups and downs in the majors, but sports a decent K rate, doesn't walk a ton, and he isn't injury prone. Not to mention his contract is not cumbersome.

With the current starting rotation woes, I think Snell could plug a hole and pitch six every five games. Pittsburgh appears to be looking for volume players, so perhaps a player stuck at AAA and another from the low minors could do the trick. Of course, many other teams probably have the same idea.

You Know…

2009-06-26T21:58:00.001-05:00

Al's Ramblings is fun when he talks about the Brewers.

Is Interleague Over Yet? Can I Come Out?

2009-06-26T21:53:00.001-05:00

In the halcyon days of the bottom dwelling Brewers, I thought interleague matchups were cool and a nice break from routine. I even went to the first Brewers' interleague game at Miller Park and got a nifty certificate.

Of course, I was oblivious to the ramifications of interleague until the Brewers started competing for something real. Now I loathe interleague because it gives an unfair advantage for some teams when a game or two difference means you're the outside looking in when it comes to playoff time.

I mused about this last year about how unfair it was for the Brewers to play in Boston whereas the Cubs had lighter interleague matchups, I just wish the schedule was more equitable so that one can measure teams appropriately against one another without qualifying it with "well, they had to play the Yankees and Red Sox, while this other team played the Royals twice and Baltimore."

This comes on the heels of getting smoked by the Twins, the overall poor performance by any NL team against any AL team (except the Indians), and the clogging of I-94 with Twins fans during my afternoon drive home from the grain elevator, and maybe the heat. Still, I think interleague has been played out and a sense of fairness needs to be restored to teams competing for a playoff spot.

I understand the appeal of interleague and the "super rivalry" (any Brewers fan will tell you their super rival is the White Sox and their loathsome fans), and MLB trots out the gimmicks early in the season to get casual fans excited. I, however, am through with interleague, no matter how fun it is not seeing Jeff Suppan hit.

Elsewhere…

Justin Morneau always brings oppressive heat, and Francisco Liriano looks like Jorge de la Rosa.

Fun Fact

2009-05-29T21:43:00.001-05:00

Ryan Braun has been in the majors exactly two years and four days.

Wherein I Make a Case for Erik Bedard in 4/4 Timing

2009-05-26T19:11:00.003-05:00

This isn't a devil's advocate screed, but I want to write something about Erik Bedard being a better target than Jake Peavy if the Brewers do indeed make a move. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Peavy on the Brewers, but Bedard may be a more realistic player, here's why in eight parts:

01 Salary commitments (assuming acquisition 7/1; from Cot's)

Bedard: Signed through 2009; $3.875mm liability
Peavy: Signed through 2012; $56.5mm liability

I realize that the Brewers' competitive window ends in 2011-12 with the departure of Fielder and others, but that's a lot of salary and years to take on for a small market team. If only something could be done with Suppan's contract…

02 Fewer commitments and a lesser perceived value = less needs to be given up.

Any Peavy trade would require one or two of the top 10 prospects in the organization. I'm thinking that Escobar really is untouchable, which would leave Gamel and/or one of the young pitchers (Jeffres?). The Padres want good young pitching, so unless the Brewers are going to get applied credit for Inman/Thatcher, the match isn't quite there. The Mariners will take any prospect. The price for Bedard would increase dramatically if Peavy is traded before him.

03 No trade contract

Bedard does not have a no-trade contract. Peavy does, and he's finicky.

04 AL to NL (aka inflated numbers)

In limited innings against the National League, Bedard has a 1.94 ERA in almost 93 innings, 10.6 K/IP, and a 1.07 WHIP. Peavy's been seen for eight seasons in the NL, so Bedard's numbers will likely improve.

05 Injury Perception / Age

If Bedard is traded, he's clearly going to have a physical, but whatever issues he had last season he appears to be over them. Bedard is also two years older than Peavy, so he's more of a risk, therefore of lesser value to suitors.

06 Lefty

Duh. If Bedard is acquired, I think Parra would be sent to the bullpen to solve his struggles. R/L duo of Gallardo and Bedard? Gangsta.

07 Canadian

One of two virtues Doug Melvin actively seeks in ballplayers: 1) former Texas Ranger 2) Canadian.

08 Jack Zduriencik

This point along with point #1 are the most important. Often front office personnel move from team to team, deals are struck with those you are familiar with, and by all accounts Melvin and Zduriencik are on friendly terms. Zduriencik would be imminently familiar with the players available in the Brewers organization, so a deal could be done quickly. And don't think favoritism and sentimentality don't play a part in this, remember how many former Rangers have passed through the Brewers since Melvin has been at the helm.

A similar post could also be made about Peavy being a better pick up for the Brewers, but the stars have aligned pretty well for a Bedard move. Time will tell.

Hoffman Drill Down

2009-05-23T19:20:00.002-05:00

I'm sick of reading about Peavy being a perfect match for the Brewers (I happen to think this guy is a more likely pick up), so I decided to check something out on his former teammate, Trevor Hoffman.

Even though there isn't anything to complain about, I was becoming skeptical of Hoffman's superb start. He can't be this dominate, can he? I recall complaints of the previous three closers (Cordero, Turnbow, Torres) that they only faced the meatless part of the lineup (hitters 7-8-9 and thereabouts). I looked into Hoffman, and here are the first three hitters he's faced in his 12 appearances:

4-5-6
9-1-2
2-3-4
4-5-6
1-2-3
4-5-6
6-7-8
2-3-4
4-5-6
5-6-7
8-9-1
7-8-9

Hoffman has faced the 3-4-5 lineup hitters 14 times within the first three batters he's faced. Does this mean anything? Not really, it just proves that he's not stealing the save from the pitcher who did face the tougher outs.

I am concerned that Hoffman is facing hackers, and lesser quality hackers like those on Houston, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Florida. The minute hitters begin taking some of Hoffman's pitches is the time we will see him give up runs and blowing saves.

The Most Important Stat

2009-05-19T22:24:00.002-05:00

Away record: 13-7

Playoff teams typically win two of three at home and are .500 on the road (which is about 94 wins). The current pace is unsustainable, but whatever mental roadblock the team once had appears to be taken care of.

Trivium

Career hits:

2,001 Jason Kendall (6856 AB, debut 4/1/96)
2,000 Todd Helton (6090 AB, debut 8/2/97)

Twitterrhea

2009-05-15T22:40:00.002-05:00

Keywords: Happy Youngster

* Gnomishtank Blogger and ballhawk The Happy Youngster gets dissed by prima donna rookie for wanting 2 bats for 1st HR ball.Good read. http://bit.ly/IkWf1

* millerparkdrunk i didnt realize how much i hated the happy youngster til i started writing about him. holy cow

* timstrack Happy Youngster take it easy on the opposing team when you are negotiating those home run balls at Miller Park..the Marlin fans are po'ed..

* genemueller @dlabay Happy Youngster sounds like Grumpy Opportunist. The team could've avoided it all by giving him the bats. Neither side looks good

I can see points on both sides, both as the guy is loser and that he was a savvy capitalist holding something of value and trying to get the most out of it. However, protocol in foul ball/home runs is well established:

1. Throw it back
2. If old, give it to a kid
3. If old and alone, keep it

I had the misfortune of listening to Charlie Sykes talking to the guy while he put his best victim crocodile tears late this morning, but it wasn't working. What's he going to do with the 50+ home run balls he threw elbows trying to get at?

I only have one baseball from a game ... a Jose Hernandez batting practice foul ball. You get a lower-class baseball like that if you tried.

One Year Ago…

2009-05-14T21:50:00.001-05:00

The Brewers have been playing very well of late that it's getting to the point that it's unsustainable. They're due for a bad stretch soon (especially since they'll be facing better quality teams), so I'm going to wax nostalgic about this point a year ago (cherry picking alert!):

W-L
2009 21-14, 177 runs scored, 151 allowed
2008 17-18, 150 runs scored, 171 allowed

Team Batting
2009 .259 BA, .351 OBP, .445 SLG, 47 HR
2008 .240 BA, .316 OBP, .379 SLG, 31 HR

Team Pitching
2009 4.11 ERA, 253 K, 125 BB, 38 HR allowed
2008 4.63 ERA, 243 K, 145 BB, 44 HR allowed

Rickie Weeks
2009 .886 OPS, 9 HR, 2 SB, 6 E
2008 .681 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB, ? E

Ryan Braun
2009 1.017 OPS, 20 BB
2008 .769 OPS, 7 BB

Prince Fielder
2009 .954 OPS, 8 HR, 38 K
2008 .776 OPS, 4 HR, 20 K

Jason Kendall
2009 .598 OPS, 4 XBH
2008 .745 OPS, 10 XBH

Jeff Suppan
2009 37.2 INN, 5.50 ERA, .871 OPS against
2008 39.2 INN, 5.22 ERA, .854 OPS against

Coincidentally, in 2008 the Brewers had just started a series against St. Louis after being swept in Florida by the Marlins. I hope 2009 isn't the bizarro 2008 Brewers where everything is opposite.

All stats culled from Baseball Reference, I'm too lazy for the other sites tonight.

Rainy Night at the Steel Umbrella

2009-05-13T20:26:00.002-05:00

Games like this make me feel like we're cheating Mother Nature. What a fun night to attend a ballgame.

Weeks! He could get a cycle tonight.

Thom Brenneman

2009-05-06T19:35:00.002-05:00

... Is not hiding his displeasure of Bronson Arroyo tonight. If I were a player, I'd meet that pipsqueek announcer in the parking lot.

Great Success for Suppan

2009-05-05T22:09:00.002-05:00

W, 5.2 IN, 5 H, 3 ER

ERA now stands at 5.68 ... almost to the 4.50 benchmark. In his last four starts, Suppan has pitched 24 innings of 3.37 ERA baseball, plus the team has won all four games. There still is cause for concern, but Suppan's "Adequate to Awful" ratio stands at 2-to-1, a ratio I am pleased with.

I feel bad for the Pirates. Almost.

Random Weekend Thoughts

2009-05-03T19:30:00.001-05:00

I think John Kruk in the control room is the most unintentionally hilarious moment Baseball Tonight could have done.
Despite stealing six bases and single handedly winning two fantasy games of mine, Carl Crawford did little to help his real live team. The longer I watch and learn about baseball, the more I believe that stolen bases are only worthwhile when it's a late inning situation or if a slow runner is at the plate. All other times, it's masturbation or stat padding.
The Brewers music man took it to heart when Hoffmann said "Hells Bells" was too quiet. It was deafening today at Miller Park.
Today was the first open roof day at the park, and I still stand by my proclamation that Miller Park is the best ballpark when said roof is said open.
Unintentional troika of former Brewers in this post. I hope LaPorta does well, and when I mean well, I mean Pat Burrell well.
I'm very concerned about Braun's injury, it could sink or swim the season,.
My modest benchmark for a playoff-bound team is .500 on the road, .667 at home, which is about 95 wins. The Brewers are on pace for the 83 wins I predicted them to be at, but if the starting pitching continue at its current pace and if the hitters turn it on, it could be a fun year.
The Braun bobblehead is very cool, even though I did not win the 1 in 43 chance of a speaking bobblehead.
Did you know that suite holders get an additional bobblehead? It's true. I should have known this years ago with my voluminous amount of mini Junior Spivey bobbleheads, but today confirmed it.
Brewers are now 5-5 in one run ballgames, right where they should be. Coin flip, dudes.
I had seats behind the visitor's dugout Friday night, so I didn't get a look at the clearly foul ball Tony Clark hit to put the Brewers away. I'm surprised Macha didn't put up much of a fight because he had a similar look at the ball that the horrible umpire did. That inning was nothing but bad luck with the dribbler, "fair ball," and fister to center, so I'll remember that one if the Brewers end up on the outside of a playoff berth by one game.
I wish Lawrie stuck with catching.

Fair or Foul?

2009-05-02T10:09:00.001-05:00

Schroeder's Words of Wisdom

2009-04-28T21:23:00.002-05:00

4/28/09

"Top of the order having a pretty good day. I mean, those three guys at the top of the order have been on every single time just about, except for Rickie. Rickie's been out a couple of times, but the other two have been on base."

Random Weekend Thoughts

2009-04-26T19:21:00.001-05:00

I had fully intended flipping around to various games after the Brewers game last night, but was thoroughly exhausted and ultimately pleased with the game. Today was rough, but a road series win is perfectly acceptable to me.
I don't want to consistently rag on Suppan, so even though he didn't get a "quality start" last night, I thought his pitching was acceptable. My expectation out of Suppan is that 2/3 of his starts would be ones like today or "quality starts" with the remaining 1/3 be dogs … I'm fine with that out of a #5 starter.
Weeks for CF 2010!
Cameron has been on a warpath … first the pitcher he nailed, then Quintero, and yesterday a few hard slides. This makes me uneasy as whenever he approaches another human being because I still have visions of him diving headfirst into one.
Oh ESPN, what will I do without you? Wow, you're broadcasting in Boston of all places and doing it in trainwreck fashion. How novel!
I will miss the MLB Network, not so much for the games (which I can get on MLB.tv), but for the highlight programs and whatnot. I was a good four months.
This will be strange not having a summer where I'm glued to the television watching Brewers games all the time, harkening back to the good old days when I listened to Ueck every night. Sure, the occaisional game will be on WMLW and I'll certainly watch them at eateries and bars, but that is only a drop in the Brewers bucket.
Unless I figure out how to hop onto a proxy and stream Brewers games via MLB.tv. It appears unfair that I would have to purchase cable in order to watch 95% of the team's games, but if I buy an exclusive online baseball package I cannot watch any Brewers games at all (unless they are archived, but what fun is that?). I know MLB wants you to attend games, of which I do, but that's been their argument for 60 years and it hasn't negatively affected the turnstiles.
I wish MLB Fastcast would show highlights of other on-field events besides exclusively homeruns.
While listening to Jon Miller broadcast Giants games, I get the feeling that he dumbs down his thoughts on Sunday Night Baseball. I guess it's all about the company you keep.
Yes, but if and only if Gamel can cap his seasonal errors at 20. Fielder isn't going anywhere and Hall isn't going back to the outfield.
A ham sandwich would have been too much, I guess.

Question Resolved

2009-04-25T19:07:00.003-05:00

Tonight's game is finally in HD ... just on the weekend we decide to give up cable, too!

According to this list they're on schedule for the HD broadcasts. Still, I wonder why it took them so long to lug the HD equipment to games. Is this a technology issue? Quality issue? Cost issue? Bandwidth issue with the HD component of FSN (which is 95% of the time on a test pattern)? Seems strange, that's all.

Twitterrhea

2009-04-21T21:11:00.001-05:00

Twitter is good for two things…

1. Being silly.
2. A search engine for inane comments.

Here are five of the latter, keyword: BREWERS.

timedoctor poor brewers, can't seem to stop throwing their balls.

Shadow_Ferret Mercifully, the rains came. With luck, they'll just call the game and put the Brewers out of my misery. #firemacha

WIEric Wondering why the Milwaukee Brewers pay these pitchers. Maybe we should pay them to pitch for other teams. Then we could get some hits.

tsherman01 What the Snap is up with the Brewers???? Same players..... New manager...... Hmmmmmmmm!

Wosick8 Watching the Brewers get spanked and thinking about making a hot dog

Great Success for Suppan

2009-04-19T15:21:00.002-05:00

W: 6+ IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

8.56 ERA (Less than Turnbow!)

With a more direct approach and a faster pace, Suppan looked much better today. This is the Suppan we've come to know in August each year ... maybe a nationally televised shaming helped.

I am tempered with this performance because a lot of the outs were hammered directly the fielders. We shall see if it's a trend next time out.

Random Weekend Thoughts

2009-04-19T13:23:00.001-05:00

I don't blame Rickie Weeks for the loss yesterday, I blame Fielder's nancy boy throw to first.
The odds of winning a one-run game is about 50/50, so the Brewers (1-4) have been unlucky thus far. Over the course of a season it will even out … if two more of the one run games would have went in the Brewers' favor, they'd have a 5-6 record. I think they'll turn out alright.
Whoops.
On a related note, I think the Brewers are the only MLB team that doesn't feature the city name on their road unis. Baltimore switched this past season.
There's definitely a pricing issue here, but why would someone spend $900 to sit in the cold? That extra variable is a big one when considering the investment. I think when summer rolls along the seats will fill up and the Yankees will use the extra cash to spend on a miserable failure of a baseball team.
What's with CitiField not being sold out? I find this strange.
I want to believe in Suppan today, but the Mets are hammering the ball right at fielders. I don't think this will end well.
The MLB app for my iPhone is kickin' and I'm impressed with MLB.tv so far. One day I'll muster up the strength to post an omnibus "feelings" post about the two.
Between the Brewers games, TBS, FOX, ESPN, and now MLB Network games, I almost decided that I didn't need to purchase MLB.tv. However, my finicky side and desire to watch whatever I wanted to watch overruled those thoughts.
Uecker totally wants to call Provus "Jim." I know it.
Bill Schroeder obviously did no show prep this offseason.
Announcers rely on the "game notes" compiled by the media relations team and, for the most part, it's sufficient. Game notes are for simpletons, thought, and I've come to the realization that I'm watching a different game than most.
Good site: Hit Tracker
Bill Hall is playing well in the field, I'll give him that.
Corey Hart with a beard looks like Yovani Gallardo.

Question

2009-04-17T20:11:00.001-05:00

Why haven't any of the FS Wisconsin broadcasts been in hi-def yet?

Standings

2009-04-14T16:06:00.002-05:00

4 - Hot Dog
0 - Brat
0 - Polish
0 - Italian
0 - Chorizo

I think it's a trend.

One day I will lay waste to the Hot Dog as an illigitimate running meat fraud (it is an expansion wiener), but I will save it until after tax season dies down.

Perspective

2009-04-13T16:18:00.002-05:00

You can't just abrogate contracts, people.

Cot's Baseball Contracts:

* 4 years/$42M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option

* signed as a free agent 12/06

* $1M signing bonus

- 07:$6M
- 08:$8M
- 09:$12.5M
- 10:$12.5M
- 11:$12.75M club option ($2M buyout)

* full no-trade clause, 2007-08

* limited no-trade clause, 2009-10 (may block deals to 8 clubs each year)

* award bonuses: $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.4M for 2nd, $0.3M for 3rd, $0.2M for 4th, $0.1M for 5th); $0.25M for MVP ($0.1M for 2nd, $75,000 for 3rd); $0.1M for All Star starting pitcher ($50,000 for A-S selection); $0.1M for WS MVP; $50,000 each for Silver Slugger, Gold Glove or AP, BA, TSN, BW, USA Today All Star

* $0.3M assignment bonus for each trade

* perks: use of suite at Brewers home games

* Suppan to donate $0.1M annually to club charity

Suppan is getting at least $27mm from someone, and right now the Brewers are the ones stuck. Cutting him would be stupid as no team would be foolish enough to sign him while he's on waivers ... they'd snap him up for the league minimum and allow the Brewers to pay the remaining $26.5mm.

Tough Day for Suppan #2

2009-04-12T22:27:00.002-05:00

3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 BB

12.91 ERA (down from 13.50)

Cubs suck

2009-04-10T13:03:00.002-05:00

That phrase is just a populist rallying cry I wish not to partake in. Using that as your mantra is as effective as yelling at yourself by way of a mirror.

The Cubs do not "suck" per se, but a significant part of their fanbase is loathesome.

Tough Day for Suppan #1

2009-04-07T23:03:00.003-05:00

4 IP, 6 R (all earned), 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Current ERA: 13.50

2009 Brewers Guesstimates

2009-04-06T22:55:00.001-05:00

Thanks to MLB At Bat for my iPhone, I reached an event horizon for personal multitasking. After getting him from a long day at the grain elevator, the app kept me abreast of the goings on in the majors and my fantasy squads, did two loads of laundry, worked out, took out the trash, finally listened to the new Nick Cave, and a myriad of other quantum mundane events I won't bore you with. It was crazy, I was very close to seeing forever.

I'll only share how I see the next few months, however, for the only numbers anyone cares about:

Team Wins
83, second place, no playoffs

Attendance
2.7mm

Homers
Braun 32
Fielder 38
Kendall 3

Errors
Braun 3
Weeks 16

Stolen Bases
Hart 26
Weeks 25

Ground Outs
Kendall 148 (168 last year)

Strikeouts (batters)
Hall 143

Strikeouts (pitchers)
Gallardo 159

Innings Pitched
Gallardo 165
Suppan 182
Bush 210
Looper 177
Parra 160

Saves
Hoffmann 23
Villanueva 6

Peavy Trade?
Nope

Prospect Arrival
Gamel (July)
Escobar (September)

Non-Prospect Arrival
Gwynn (September)

As I've consistently believed since the end of last season, 2009 is going to be a small step back for the Brewers. They lost a significant amount of innings in the starting rotation, so they're going to have to rely on the bullpen to throw more, thus getting worn down and a mess by July. The offense has been underwhelming for a few seasons and they could theoretically break out and be that offensive powerhouse many inherently think the team is.

I think this is still going to be a fun team to watch because the core – Hardy, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks – have another season of experience and are still approaching their statistical career seasons. They'll play better defense and hopefully not look so silly at the plate, perhaps take a few more walks, and whatever. I like the core, I still enjoy watching each of their at bats (except Hart, he has some work to do after his September performance).

As far as management, I expect it to be a quiet year for Melvin and the Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. The team needs a stellar starter for 2010-2012 while the aforementioned core players are still under team control. Melvin doesn't have any chips to deal until the offseason when Escobar should be seriously pushing either Hardy or Weeks into a new position or out of the organization. I can see Cameron being dealt, but whatever he would net in return is not what the Brewers need.

Bring it on.

Too Big to Fail #1: Ryan Braun

2009-04-05T18:45:00.002-05:00

Finally, the last of a weeklong look at the eight players I believe are key to the success of the 2009 Brewers. Should any of them significantly deviate from their expected output, it will be a long season. I guarantee it.

It's hard for me to contain my love of Ryan Braun, I simply think he's the greatest player to don a Brewers' uniform in my post-1989 fandom life. What's there not to like about Braun? He always hits, he effortlessly says clichéd quote after clichéd quote, takes an active leadership role, very marketable, changes positions because management asks him to, actually enjoys playing for his country, has an adequate amount of confidence that's not off-putting (except to Cardinals fans), and signed a long-term contract at below market value. He is the straw and the drink that is stirred and shaken … as he goes, so goes the Brewers.

If Braun had been fully healthy after August 9^th, the team would have easily made the playoffs instead of limping in. That's a testament to the offense he continually brings to the team, and entering his age 25 season he should have at least incremental improvement in those numbers for the next three seasons. Added to it that he should be markedly improved in the field this year, his all around moxie is desperately needed for the team. Here are various predictions for his output in 2009:

PECOTA
.295 AVG, .361 OBP, .558 SLG, 37 HR
CHONE
.294 AVG, .351 OBP, .556 SLG, 32 HR (132 games)
MARCEL
.384 OBP, 32 HR

I don't know why CHONE has him playing in only 132 games, but his aggravation of the rip injury as well as the thumb contusion are of modest concern. Braun swings all out on each pitch, so anything impeding such violent hacks will hurt his power game and the lofty expectations.

I'm not too concerned about Braun faltering below these expected numbers in his third season in the majors, he seems to have the right mix of virtually every ballplayer virtue outlined in the not-italicized opening paragraph. However, I am concerned about the recent talk of Braun hoping to take more pitches … it seems in contract to his game. One of my rash generalizations about ballplayers (from reading Moneyball years ago), is to not mess with what brought the hitters success. My theory relies upon whether the change was instigated by management or by the player … if by the player, it's probably a less risky proposition. If by management it spells trouble.

Worries, bah! Braun should do fine and I hope he doesn't get injured because there is little pointing toward an offensive collapse for my burgeoning bromance.

Photo credit: Tom Lynn/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #3: JJ Hardy

2009-04-04T21:49:00.002-05:00

You know what, this was the greatest post in the history of this fledgling blog. Somehow it was deleted and now I refuse to re-write the genius of the moment. This is only a tribute.

Better Get Used to This

2009-04-04T21:14:00.002-05:00

The meme for the season will be "Tough day for Suppan."

Too Big to Fail #2: Yovani Gallardo

2009-04-04T21:11:00.004-05:00

Some people do laundry Saturday nights, some people watch basketball, yet others wax ecstatic about the Brewers upcoming season. One particular homebody does them all with the seventh installment of the eight men destined to lead the Brewers to an 83-win year. Should any of these guys regress or not provide any semblance of resemblance to their predicted numbers, it's going to be a long, fruitless season.

Yovani Gallardo is one of a kind and I don't think he's far underappreciated in Brewers lore. Sure, the injury last year didn't help (and neither did the incessant replays of him jumping over Reed Johnson and having his knee bent backwards ad nauseum), but he's done something very few individuals have ever done in the Brewers organization: a hotshot arm escaping the minors to the majors in tact. That, in itself, is worthy of heaping praise.

Gallardo is anointed as the Brewers' real #1 starter and I sure hope as hell he performs like one. I'm not concerned about his performance however, but I am concerned about the amount of innings he may or may not accumulate. He's entering his age 23 season after a year of almost constant rehab, so any jump will be significant. In 2007 his pitched almost 200 innings, so I know he has it in him … but the almost year layoff is troubling. Here are the predications for '09:

PECOTA
115 IP (21 GS), 111 K, 3.90 ERA
CHONE
108 IP (19 GS), 112 K, 3.50 ERA
MARCEL
79 IP, 70 K, 3.59 ERA

These numbers are not relevant to my interests, hopes, and dreams. It's probably a good idea to shutter Gallardo's innings to a point, but the predictions show Gallardo going on the DL for at least two months. Aside from his knee injury, Gallardo has been durable and consistent throughout his career, so I am cautiously optimistic the man will make it to 150 innings in 2009 (with 180 a possibility). Long term, it is best for Gallardo to be limited … maybe have Villanueva the designated reliever to go another three innings after Gallardo leaves after five? Maybe.

Gallardo is a key component to the team and is the best starter to come out of the organization since Sheets (of whom he is technically replacing in the rotation, even though Sheets hasn't been all that great for four years). I hope Reed Johnson has the good sense not to slide into first base ever again.

Photo credit: Jeff Lewis/AP/LA Times

Too Big to Fail #4: Corey Hart

2009-04-02T22:17:00.002-05:00

Any number of worries can consume people these days, be it the dire economy or a fussy quarterback who singlehandedly ruined a keeper league off season strategy AND your real hometown team's season. Of course, I worry only about baseball, namely the stars of my hometown baseball team, the Brewers. These guys get overlooked because other fans are accustomed to their stable numbers, but this week I've been rambling incoherently for my own pleasure on the eight who are key to the season.

Corey Hart had a miserable finish to the season. Whether it was an injury, fatigue, or an evaporated sense of concentration, Hart was flailing at every pitch and missing by a mile starting September 6^th. The 2008 All-Star finished the season only 13 times in his 83 plate appearances … an absolutely dreadful .159 OBP that would make Paul Bako feel bad.

We all know Hart isn't that bad, plus we aren't naïve enough to think he's suddenly going to be a walk machine. Hart is just one of those guys who cannot be patient at the plate, he's always going to swing. Despite his inability to draw one, Hart compensates with a short, quick swing that should be good for a solid .270-.280 BA the rest of his career. The number crunchers predict that…

PECOTA
.289 AVG, .343 OBP, .494 SLG, 23 HR
CHONE
.278 AVG, .335 OBP, .479 SLG, 19 HR
MARCEL
.345 OBP, 20 HR

PECOTA has loved Hart for a while, and so do many others and not just because of his name. He has the tools to be a solid player and as long as he avoids terrible funks like the September 2008, he should be counted on for these numbers and shouldn't be too much of a worry to fail. His average and glove can be replaced easy, but since there is no LaPorta in the system, Hart's modest power is needed.

A Joe Carter-esque career awaits.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #5: Manny Parra

2009-04-01T20:46:00.002-05:00

Next week Sunday begins anew the 2009 Brewers campaign and while others may worry about which sausage wins the most, I am more concerned about the core eight players on the roster. Should any one of these eight players falter, so will the already slim wild card hopes. The elite eight campaign continues today with Manny Parra.

Nowadays it's easy to fall into the trap thinking that Manny Parra is a young rookie who came through for the team in his first full major league system. However, Parra is entering only his age 26 season, the same age as JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks are for the upcoming campaign, and still older than Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, and Prince Fielder. Compared to the young core, Parra is an old man, but we're still going to treat him as the new kid in town because of his track record.

Yes, a mere season ago, all Brewers fans were ready to lump Parra in the company of Neugebauer, Jones, Jackson, D'Amico, Quevedo and ilk in the mounting heap of failed Brewers pitching prospects of the past 17 years. Then something strange happened … Parra threw a no-hitter, stayed with the club out of camp, and posted a solid 2008. Yes, he did tire down the stretch, but as long as he avoids a complete melt down, he'll have a spot in the Brewers' rotation as the lone southpaw for decades to come. Decades!

Of the eight players on my hodgepodge of a list, he is the one I am most concerned about failing. Here are the core predictions:

PECOTA
136 IP, 111 K, 1.45 WHIP, 4.40 ERA
CHONE
124 IP, 104 K, 1.44 WHIP, 4.21 ERA
MARCEL
139 IP, 121 K, 1.46 WHIP, 4.27 ERA

Even though he easily threw 166 innings last season, all of the standard bearers think Parra is due for at least a 30 inning drop. Why? His ample injury history which is represented well in his minor league statistics. His WHIP and ERA are generally stable, so he's deserving of a spot on the major league roster, but even though he looks like a healthy young man, he's only thrown over 100 innings in a season twice before the sudden jump last year in the majors.

An increase as significant as that leads one to conclude he may be due for another injury, but who knows? Maybe he's turned a corner and will continue to pitch adequately enough in the majors to reach his #2 starter potential we've heard about so many years. Obviously this is what I hope happens in 2009 because the Brewers are going to need him to consistently take the ball because the options beyond him are terrible (Looper's issues causing even more concern).

Plus, he wears his socks like a champ.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #6: Prince Fielder

2009-03-31T22:15:00.002-05:00

While others fawn over the last guy in the bullpen or the marvel that is Casey McGehee (and the eventual fall in the regular season), the key to the 2009 Brewers is not the role players, but the big guys, the elite eight if you will. Without expected seasons out of any of these guys, the Brewers' already slim hopes of making the playoffs grow significantly dim. Fielder is sixth on my list to countdown to the start of the regular season.

Prince Fielder went from plucky HOF-possible youngster to borderline pariah after he hit his 50^th home run September 25^th, 2007. After the game he went off on his erstwhile dad, which changed many opinions about the big guy. Those opinions changed further in the spring training 2008 with a contract dispute with the team that went public and his abrupt switch to "greens only." Suddenly visions of Gary Sheffield were appearing in my nightmares, a cantankerous first baseman who's lipping off about whatever and wouldn't be the purported team leader the announcers would so desperately want you to believe. An early season home run drought didn't help things.

Then a funny thing happened, Fielder reverted to the lumbering snuggle bear fans came to know about him and posted a modest season. Sure, it didn't match the 50 homers of 2007 (which irritated casuals), but it was still a good enough season to warrant a 128 OPS and just shy of 300 total bases in his third full season. Hard to believe, but Fielder still has two more seasons before the optimal career year age of 27, and the predictive numbers show an incremental improvement:

PECOTA
.288 AVG, .378 OBP, .542 SLG, 33 HR
CHONE
.286 AVG, .388 OBP, .555 SLG, 36 HR
MARCEL
.382 OBP, 32 HR

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Fielder will reach 40 homers given that he's signed a modest contract and has a year of being vegetarian under his belt. However, if he falters or gets injured, he opens a gaping hole in the lineup that forces pitchers to not give Braun anything to hit … because we all know he's going to swing at everything. Brad Nelson can only rake so much.

Since Fielder hits for a solid average and does take a walk now and then, I don't foresee any significant backtracking unless he hurts a knee. He has come to camp in shape which, after ballooning with the new diet last season, is a welcome sign. I've read in the past that he knows that he can have very special career and is always looking for an edge, and it seems that this particular factoid is the truth.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #7: Rickie Weeks

2009-03-30T22:00:00.002-05:00

This is the second of a series of eight profiles of players whom I believe will play a huge part in the 2009 campaign. Should one of these elite eight fail, the Brewers are probably out of the running for a playoff spot. While others focus on the scrubs rounding out the roster or the bullpen, I think the star players on the roster aren't properly recognized for what they are: gangsta.

If there ever was a player being hated on unnecessarily, it would be Rickie Weeks. Perhaps he's wilting under the crushing weight of expectations, but the poor guy has done nothing but post slightly below average numbers. Sure, he looks ugly doing so with ample strikeouts and errors (which have subsided as he ages), but at least he's a consistent mediocre.

Of course, with not meeting expectations, Weeks is now being pressured to perform entering his age 26 season. He's under team control through 2011, but with the presence of Escobar in the minors and Hardy entrenched at shortstop, he could be, and should be, feeling the heat. Weeks is OK, but he could be oh so much better… if he doesn't come through this season, I don't think he ever will. Here are his predictions:

PECOTA
.269 AVG, .373 OBP, .442 SLG, 17 HR, 20 SB
CHONE
.343 OBP, 14 HR, 20 SB
MARCEL
.257 AVG, .368 OBP, .431 SLG, 16 HR, 21 SB

Not too bad, but the average is disappointing. I think we as Brewers fans expect about 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, and a .280 average out of Weeks, if not more. I still think there's a possibility of a breakout season, but that glimmer of hope fades with each passing year.

The high strikeouts and the low average draw the ire of casuals, but I recognize the worth Weeks brings to the team. I think if he continues his underperforming ways, the Brewers are either going to trade him this fall to make room for Escobar (which I don't think should happen), or train him to become a center fielder where another player with the same low average, high strikeout stigma has forged a pretty good career (Mike Cameron).

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Deep Thought

2009-03-29T20:56:00.001-05:00

I would love to be known as a "Fantasy Expert."

Too Big to Fail #8: Dave Bush

2009-03-29T17:56:00.004-05:00

Today begins a week-long series of ramblings on the eight most important Brewers of the 2009 season. Without the significant efforts of these individuals performing near their career norms, I believe the Brewers will have no shot at the post season. Of course, an outstanding season by any of these Elite Eight could boost the Brewers back to 90 wins. While most waste their time on fretting about the bullpen and the 25^th man on the roster, I'll focus on the important guys because they're often taken for granted.

I've always liked Dave Bush and his varying looks: balding, shaved bald, Kornheiser, goatee, now bald with a beard. Seeking Bush's look is much like awaiting the first robin of spring. Bush is always there, rarely spectacular, but you can count on him to take the ball every so often and give his even if it means blowing up in the fifth or sixth inning. He certainly moves in unmysterious ways. Plus since the team got him from the Blue Jays, I've always thought he was Canadian, which would make him untrustworthy.

Bush arrived from Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade a few season ago and I never thought of him as the key part of the deal. If you recall, the Brewers also received pitching prospect Zach Jackson and spare outfielder Gabe Gross. Bush was supposed to be filler, an adequate fourth/fifth starter awaiting to be replaced by Jackson. Jackson, however, realized that his stirrups couldn't hide his 85 MPH fastball down the middle of the plate.

Entering his fourth year with the Brewers, Bush has accumulated three solid seasons, two slightly above average and one below average. Was anything more expected of him? No, I don't think so. Apparently on this year's squad he is the fifth starter even though he is clearly the third best starter on the team. He's entering his age 29 season and all signs point to him to continue putting up his standard numbers. Here are what the projections think about Dave Bush:

PECOTA
145 IP, 95 K, 4.27 ERA
CHONE
180 IP, 120 K, 4.30 ERA
MARCEL
169 IP, 118 K, 4.29 ERA

Alright, those seem reasonable. PECOTA predicts that Bush will probably spend some time in the bullpen, but those are generally in line with his career norms. Bush hasn't pitched fewer than 185 innings in his time with the Brewers and it seems that he's durable enough to put up similar numbers this year.

We've watched Bush over the years and know his game: "wild in the zone," few walks, many singles, lots of homers, ample stirrups, good athlete, etc. He is what he is, a slightly above average pitcher which makes him a good #3 or #4 starter in the league (unless he plays for Baltimore, in that case he's their number one). Fans gripe about his inability to get beyond the fifth and sixth innings, but if he's giving you that many solid innings and keeping you in the game, why get greedy?

What has bothered me about Bush all these years is that his few walks make his peripherals look better than they ought to be. Specifically his K/BB ratio lead many to draft him in the later rounds as a "sleeper" in fantasy leagues that past two seasons. Obviously this still could happen as he's had enough time under his belt and is entering his prime, that would certainly benefit the Brewers in 2009 when they need as many starting pitches to step up as much as possible.

If Bush fails, the Brewers don't have an adequate backup plan to eat his innings. McClung would probably be called upon to take his spot in the rotation, but he'll throw even fewer innings in his place and the bullpen will lose another long inning arm (we all know Villanueva can only go once through the order before he gets shelled). If Bush reverts to his 2007 form, the Brewers may not crack 81 wins.

I would like nothing more than Bush to pitch nondescriptly every fifth day this season and pitch adequately. There is a possibility of a breakthrough season, but if given the 2008 Bush stats, even with his faults, I'd be pleased.

Photo Credit: AP/JSOnline

Suppose Suppan…

2009-03-25T19:50:00.002-05:00

… actually pitches a nice game once in a while? You're already under the assumption that the Brewers are going to lose that day unless they score six runs, but on this day he's cruising through six innings. The opposing #1 starter could have an off day (how many times have you seen the Brewers lay one on Randy Johnson in his prime?).

I do not think Suppan as the opening day starter is a terrible strategy and it gives me more confidence in Macha after fretting about the whole Kendall-batting-leadoff situation. This is out of the box thinking and it may pick up a win or two down the road (if Suppan returns to his mediocre form).

Earl Weaver, one of the best out of the box thinking managers of all time, used to field his "B" lineup in the first game of a double header, essentially hoping to get lucky against the opposition's first stringers. I think this is what Macha has in mind when it comes to the rotation … maybe Suppan pitches a decent game every once in a while and the team gets lucky, then the significantly better and more consistent members of the rotation face inferior opposition starters.

This is a true playing the percentages move by management and I applaud them for trying this. It may be torture at times since Suppan will probably be the sixth best starter to break camp, but in a Wild Card race when each game matters, in the long run this could pan out.

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

2009-03-19T15:39:00.002-05:00

Macha considering Kendall at leadoff.

No. I thought Macha would be better than this. There is a voluminous amount of data to support Kendall not batting at all, let alone first in the lineup. Kendall is around for his veteran presence and defensive ability, not his weak grounders to second base.

I am of the opinion that the batting order matters little, but giving the worst batter the most at bats seems counter-productive. Macha says "What he does is almost every at-bat is a seven-pitch at-bat." Let's roll the tape:

Pitches Per Plate Appearance 2008:
4.14 Rickie Weeks
3.63 Jason Kendall

So it appears that Macha's quote was not well researched.

If this gets printed in the JS tomorrow without some sort of statistical evidence beyond Kendall's career counting stats, I'm going to write a sternly worded letter to Haudricourt.

30 Clubs in 30 Days

2009-03-15T19:32:00.002-05:00

The MLB Network program airing today features the Brewers, but only caught wind of it for the last five minutes. They were making predictions and surprisingly cited BP's, but then threw it over to former CLE GM John Hart who said the Brea Crew would finish ... Fourth.

Fourth! Third is plausible, but fourth? This is an obomination and demand his full argument. No way Dusty Baker wills the Reds ahead of the Brewers.

Weeks Apparently a Poor Fielder

2009-03-13T21:54:00.001-05:00

…or so says Bill James in his Fielding Bible.

Rob Neyer brought this up today about the supposed unique opportunity that is presented to the Brewers, but I don't agree with his thoughts. I don't get into the fielding aspect of the game too much because there isn't a metric as close to, say, OPS or K/IP that can be pointed to for prowess in the field. I think that any real fielding metric will have to incorporate a heavy duty physics formula because of the various dimensions, but that's for another day.

Neyer suggests that Braun is a poor left fielder, but I think he did adequate in his first season in left field. He does have that Soriano "look like you don't know what you're doing, but make the play and throw out the overconfident runner" thing going on, but recent evidence shows he was barely below average in left. And moving him to first would be dumb anyway because slugging first basemen are largely fungible (plus Prince is going to be around for a few more seasons).

Escobar isn't going to pay second, so that leaves it up to the Brewers to push Hardy over there. Hardy, however, isn't signed long term and it would behoove him to ruin his value on the market … a slugging second baseman is a luxury, but a slugging shortstop is even more so.

Lastly to refute Neyer's suggestion is that the Brewers just committed to Brett Lawrie as a second baseman and, by all accounts, will move through the system rapidly should he hit well. So ETA is probably three seasons, which is the time remaining that Weeks is under Brewers' control. Obviously this is a longer-term outlook and the viability of prospects is always in question.

Where does that leave us? I haven't read James' Fielding Bible and I have no doubts that Weeks is poor in the field, but from watching his career I can confidently say these few points about his ability on the diamond:

1.    The more time he has to field, he greater the probability it is he will commit an error
2.    He turns double plays fine
3.    He tends to throw the ball low to first base with the plays being exacerbated by having Fielder manning the bag
4.    He has trouble with grounders, but flies (and going back on pop ups) he does well

That's Weeks in a nutshell, but he hits (or gets on base) a lot better than their other options. His value is with the bat and I hope he blooms this season a la Brandon Phillips at about this age.

In '06 and '07 there was talk about moving Weeks to the outfield, so if the Brewers are serious about moving Weeks, they should lay the groundwork for putting him in CF. Obviously the experience worked (somewhat) by moving another athletic infielder with issues out there in '07, but with the impending departure of Cameron after '09 does open an opportunity for the Brewers to do so.

If Weeks raises his average or hits for more power, I think the Brewers should strongly consider moving him to CF at the beginning of '10. There is a precedent of moving good hit/poor field 2B to the outfield (see Mark McLemore comes to mind), so this wouldn't be a new thing. This leaves a gaping hole at 2B, but it keeps Weeks and suppresses the dearth of OF sluggers in the system (Cole Gillespie not withstanding). Hardy to 3^rd/San Francisco Giants?

Just sayin'.

Quotable

2009-03-11T22:07:00.001-05:00

The dangerous and emblematic Ichiro, who had already failed on three occasions, hit a single.

Fidel Castro

Easily a frontrunner as my favorite baseball related quote of the year. One day I'll rant about the Brewers again, one day … soon.

Travesty!

2009-03-10T22:02:00.001-05:00

Those of you glued to FSN Wisconsin have come to know and loathe Jerry Garcia, the Piggly Wiggly commercial chef with the unfortunate name. He's in the news today as he moves to Hotel Metro from … whereabouts unknown (here?).

I think Piggly Wiggly, my former employer of years ago, should get residuals because, outside of foodies, few knew of the man before he started dishing random sausage dressing recipes for 60 seconds at a time during game telecasts. I never paid attention to the commercials, let alone write down a recipe so as to later do this "cook" thing I've been hearing about all my life. But I knew they were one, with that Pavlovian theme song and the amenable mug of the adoringly not-Dead Head Jerry Garcia.

He's haunted me, for sure.

Helpful Tip

2009-03-09T22:19:00.001-05:00

The MLB Network needs to hire an editor for their crawls … waaaaay too much text.

Biding My Time For Real Games

2009-03-05T21:18:00.001-06:00

I'm going to let the phenomena known as the Casey McGehee Experience play itself out before I write anything prophetic. There isn't too much exciting going on in Brewers land that's irritating me too much, so all I'm doing right now is preparing for multiple fantasy baseball drafts. Did you know there's something going on with A-Rod? Who knew!

I will pass along this article from Seamheads posted today: Almost An International Incident in Milwaukee. The story speaks for itself and it informs me about a team called the "Milwaukee Red Sox" that I've never heard of, so they join the Milwaukee Bears, original Milwaukee Brewers, and the minor league Brewers as the forgotten pro teams for the city. In any case, it's a little bit of history I didn't know about and I appreciate the folks at Seamheads for bringing it to light.

These Red Sox must have played alongside the minor league Brewers at old Borchert Field, which was probably the stadium du jour for any team back in the day. I ride my bike in the vicinity where the stadium used to be and have been meaning to take photos of the sights and whatever may be left of the first pro baseball stadium in the city. Unfortunately, most of it is part of I-43 and a patchwork of asphalt, so retracing the corners will be tough. However, it sounds like an amusing treasure hunt for me to do this summer if it ever gets warm.

Deep Thought 2

2009-03-04T20:23:00.001-06:00

If Witrado continues doing stand-ups with his back turned to the plate, he's going to get wrapped on the back of the head by a bat or a ball. Just saying don't be surprised if it happens (even in BP), this is the first thing they teach you in sports journalism school.

Trot Nixon? Center field?

2009-03-02T12:16:00.002-06:00

It's more likely than you think.

If the current trend continues, grit will increase ten-fold.

Blind Singers Earn Double

2009-03-01T22:32:00.001-06:00

I promised myself to sit down the past week and write a prophetic tome about Tony Gwynn and his future with the Brewers, but the more I looked into it, the more I've come to the conclusion that there isn't one. The more I read about Gwynn and his shoulder injury, his seasonal age, his roster status (he is out of options), the near term major league prospects, and the longer term outlook, all I can think about is Tom Goodwin.

Goodwin was a plucky outfielder who bounced around to many teams after being a touted rookie coming out of the Dodgers' system in the early '90's. He had a few good seasons in between, but has all the hallmarks us statistically skewed baseball fans have come to associate with interchangeable players: little power, poor plate discipline, and speed. I have to say that I didn't think of the Tom Goodwin comparison until I saw Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections … his name was a comparable to Gwynn (along with Jason Tyner, Jerry Owens, and Tyrell Godwin). Projections are projections, but because I actually watched Tom Goodwin play, it struck a chord. Tom Goodwin and Tony Gwynn are interchangeable, along with a trove of speedy OFs who hit singles and not much else.

I've been a proponent of trading Gwynn the past few years while his perceived value was fairly high (especially amongst some Brewers fans), but now that time has passed and I think it's a reasonable possibility that Gwynn will get through waivers and be at Nashville come April. The one silver lining in Gwynn's future with the major league club is that Cameron will only be around for one more season, beyond this season he's the only viable OF option (placeholder?) for the Brewers. Of course, Gamel could be moved, Hart/Braun could slide over, someone could be traded for … I think Melvin's true feelings about Gwynn were expressed via the failed Cameron trade for Melky (shudder) Cabrera.

So Gwynn's fungible, but that's not saying he is beyond having a few good seasons … I just do not think it will be with the Brewers. I am holding out hope he can be spun to a lesser team (Royals, Pirates) for another arm, or to a team that needs a late inning PR who can play solid defense (Phillies, White Sox). Tony Gwynn would be much more valuable if there weren't so many of him out there.

Related:
KLSnow @ BCB: What's Tony Gwynn's upside?

On Sale Today

2009-02-28T07:44:00.002-06:00

I drove by a very busy Miller Park a few minutes ago and spotted the minions awaiting tickets and the hoopla that's about to ensue. I, for one, will maybe try to get tickets online (for at least the Ryan Braun bobblehead), but I'm betting on people realizing the economy's sort of bad and them changing their mind about tickets. Getting into the stadium is the priority, not where I sit ... and I assume at any point there is one of 43,000+ tickets with my name on it.

Game on!

Deep Thought

2009-02-23T21:34:00.001-06:00

Would it be too much to ask Anthony Witrado to dress more professionally?

Bullpen Boycott

2009-02-21T19:09:00.001-06:00

Over at BCB there has been a dueling of thoughts, parsing of words, and flinging of numbers about the Brewers' bullpen since Gagne signed. Much is over construction, some over effectiveness, marginal cost, and whatnot. My eyes glossed over writing those two sentences, so I'm doing the unthinkable: I'm not going to think or write about the bullpen until Macha misuses it during the season. Why? Because it doesn't matter.

Remember the fundamental concept about who comprises a bullpen: failed starters. No one grows up wanting to be a middle relief pitcher. NO ONE. In my mind, the only people of interest in the bullpen are:

That rookie pitcher gaining experience
That LOOGY
That one guy who's decent enough to finish the game

Other than that, I don't care who is in the bullpen as long as they are used effectively and not too often. I view them as the 7-8-9 hitters in the lineup. Few GM's go into the winter meetings saying "Boy, I have to shore up the bottom third of that lineup or we're going to be toast." They are replacement level players, anything more would be a luxury and cost significantly more … and that fits the players who make up the bullpen.

I'll tell you how it will go as Spring Training winds down: the player with options is going to be sent to the minors, and those who are kept will be given a chance. If that chance is squandered, they will be cut and the more deserving player sent to AAA will be recalled. Easy.

I know part of the bullpen chatter online and at the heritage media needs to fill a gaping void of actual team news, so I understand this. However, the bullpen doesn't matter because they are more likely than not replacement level relievers who will excel if used properly by management. After Yost, that's all we can hope for in this team.

Elder Fielder Strikes a Conciliatory Tone (Sort of)

2009-02-19T21:27:00.002-06:00

Each day I race home from the grain elevator to the nightly news DVR'd so I can learn the latest in the grain elevator industry to see if I'll have a job tomorrow. Sometimes I flip it to the MLB Network to check out the latest on the Hot Stove and see if there's anything I missed on Rotoworld 12 hours ago. Surprise, surprise, Papa Fielder was the in studio guest.

With Prince in the prime of his career and Cecil now managing an independent team in Atlantic City, I believe the big man will make the drive to Secaucus many times this year and spout his misgivings about his relationship with his son. Credit should go out to Matt Vasgersian and gang for talking about something other than the tenuous situation between the father and son, but the topic still came up nonetheless.

Cecil seems to have learned his lessons about speaking in public about his son and realizes that they both probably need the time apart to "learn to be men." Of course, nothing was said about Cecil's gambling debts and mistreatment of Prince's mom that lead to the whole situation, but I realize the MLB Network is a propaganda wing for the league. Vasgersian was befuddled about the difficulty of this particular father-son relationship, he must hug his dad each day. Cecil was cool about things, but, nary a hint of sarcasm, said Prince doesn't do anything better than he did. He added "Oh, he can run faster than I can."

Of note in the interview were the vintage videos of Cecil with a very young Prince and then an older Prince, batting righty, taking swings at Tiger Stadium. The long arm of the MLB Network would shutter any video I may post, but I felt a few screen grabs would be mildly interesting.

Speaking of which, with the talk of Prince being markedly thinner at spring training, one would think that would be a good photo to post on the internet. Apparently this is not the case as no legitimate photo of the vegetarian-but-eat-two-packs-of-Twizzlers-a-day Fielder have yet to show up on the web.

The Hot Stove program re-airs multiple times tonight, the money segment is about half past the hour and also features Cecil hitting his homer out of County Stadium off Dan Plesac.

I guess he's never going to stop doing this lip thing.

BRAAAAAAAINS

2009-02-17T21:12:00.002-06:00

You thought he was gone ... but he's back for more!

Sorry, it's the first thing I thought of when I read the news. I think this is a good low risk/high reward move that small payroll clubs have to make. Obviously his time in Milwaukee wasn't completely awful since he was willing to come back.

Panic post about pitchers averted

2009-02-15T18:04:00.001-06:00

A couple of weeks ago I was going to write a diatribe on the sorry state of the Brewers' starting rotation compared to last year. I held off, however, because I have a belief that Melvin is still one of the best GMs in the game and was reasonably sure he would come through with league-average talent to not only fill out the rest of the rotation, but provide depth in case injuries were to occur. My dream of a Jake Peavy trade aside, I think he did fairly well with Looper, Wright, and other randoms to compete, but eventually be sent to AAA.

Obviously Looper and Wright are not the droids we're looking for, but one of the general theories of starting pitching is that you must have plethora of arms because guys will get hurt (Capuano), and secondly you must get guys who can consistently give you 5+ innings each game. You may be able to skimp on the first theory because of a stellar staff, but I believe the second point is more important because that affects the bullpen, and unless you have a barrow-full of K-rods, a bullpen works better with more rest. More IP by starters = more quality bullpen appearances = more marginal victories. It's that simple.

I'm not a downer on Suppan, DiFelice, or McClung or whomever is vying for the remaining spots in the rotation after Gallardo, Parra, and Bush, but if they can't do that job, then that's it; the team needs to cut its losses and move them to the pen or AAA and give others a chance. The addition of Looper, a league average pitcher, boosted the Brewers three more wins in the early PECOTA projections. I think the Brewers were already going struggle this year without that stellar starter(s) and young pitching staff, but at least a projection of 86 wins gets them into the Wild Card conversation … about where they were at this time last year. Maybe the young offense will take that giant leap and carry the team much like the pitching did after Sabathia arrived in 2008.

My starting staff depth chart:

01 Gallardo
02 Parra
03 Bush
04 Looper
05 McClung
06 Suppan
07 DiFelice
08 Wright
09 Capuano (after July)

If it were up to me, Suppan would be in long relief and McClung would be in the rotation because he's the only starting hard-thrower the Brewers have. Alas, Suppan and his unfrozen caveman lawyer schtick will be veterany in the rotation until he has a quad injury just before his bobblehead day. I'm also bothered that the Brewers spent the same amount of money on Hoffman that could have gotten them Jon Garland, but that's a future rant.

The Best Second Place Team Ever

2009-01-13T22:03:00.002-06:00

For years I thought that the 1982 Brewers did win the World Series the way everyone spoke so glowingly about them. It wasn't until the early '90's when I started reading baseball books that the hard truth set in, how could these people be lying to me all these years? I think it's maybe a Milwaukee or Wisconsin thing to laud the few champions or near-miss champs for eternity. It's hard to explain why the '82 team is supremely lauded, but it is pathetic for people to be so enamored with a club that is now more than 26 years in the past.

What got me thinking about this unfortunate tourette's-like subject of area Brewers fans was the Harvey's Wallbangers program aired on the MLB network over the weekend. I finally sat down and watched it, I've long passed being reminiscent about that one time the Brewers were good, so it was nice to be reminded of how great the '79-'83 teams were and the glory they narrowly missed out on.

I believe the program itself is this particular DVD, which the network mislabeled as "2009," giving me the impression that I was recording something new. I never saw it, so it was new to me, and it was a nice look back, but I was disappointed in the presentation. Obviously MLB Productions cobbled together old and new interviews, so the video and audio quality throughout the program wasn't consistent. Content wise it was nice, though the final five minutes of the Robin Yount retrospective was a strange touch. Most strange was that Bob Uecker narrated the show and sometimes his interviews were featured … so some journalistic license was definitely being taken there. I did learn that Harvey Kuenn had a fake leg, so I will be certain to bring that up at bar time.

Don't get me wrong, the Wallbangers DVD is by far the best (only?) retrospective on the team that I know of, but it clearly illustrates the difference between the way baseball and football present one another. NFL Films does a great job marketing and branding itself through the dramatic shows, showing the real plays at ¾'s speed and allowing the story develop at a natural pace. Wallbangers, along with tons of other MLB shows, is a quick hit compendium of information and action, jumping from interview to fast action and not allowing the viewer to breathe. Though they try to develop a story, it isn't as dramatically crafted as NFL Films productions even though I would say baseball has far more poignant moments. Perhaps the MLB media powers should watch Ken Burns's Baseball to find out how to tell a real baseball story.

This might have something to do with psychology, though, because all baseball fans tend to defend their favorite sport against those who say it's boring or too slow. I hope the media guys get over this hurdle and hire some story writers to write about the story that already exists.

I digress … this is much more than I wanted to write about the show, but it brings up a lot other things for me to gripe/reminisce about, like how Harry Dalton is the most under-appreciated person in Brewers history. Another ramble for another day.

Sloppy Seconds

2009-01-10T14:54:00.001-06:00

A GM's off-season hopes are much like a CC Sabathia jersey t-shirt. One day you love it and what it represents, the next you're wearing it to the gym.

Thus goes the off-season for Doug Melvin and those affiliated with the Brewers. January is the maudlin month when you realize your best laid plans are not going to happen and you start picking up the sloppy seconds. In my informal brain racking, I figure that the Brewers are one of 20 teams who had a disappointing off-season, while five met their plans (incl. Yankees), and five others have no plan at all (incl. Royals).

By all means, the January signings are not terrible, it's just that they aren't who you wanted. Hoffman is a great example, I'm certain he'll be serviceable, but it's hardly a psychological jolt for the better that signings in November or December can get you. This month is all about plugging holes and the Brewers have a gaping hole in the starting rotation. It'll be filled one way or another, but any way will not be exciting.

Regarding Hoffman, I hope he works and the West Allis fans refrain from booing after a few rough outings. I didn't have any expectations regarding the "closer" situation because I think the "closer" who gets all those meaningless "save" stats should be the best pitcher who is not a starter and/or has the highest strikeout rate. Obviously the pickings were slim on the roster as it stands, but someone would step up and take the ball. If anything, the signing pushes those pitchers (Coffey, Villanueva, Stetter, Riske, Julio, McClungmaybe) earlier in the game, and if the Brewers aren't going to get a competent starter, they might as well bolster the bullpen.

Hoffman concerns me, however, moving to his first new team since 1993 (when I was 15) and pitching more in homer-friendly ballparks (bloggy views: 1, 2, 3). Hot summer days in all NL Central ballparks may not bode well for a flyball pitcher with a declining strikeout rate. Oh yeah, his seasonal age this year is 41 … the cold weather in those same parks could make things stiff. If spotted his projections, I'd take them, but you know the sample size is small and/or steroid inflated for pitchers of that age.

A benefit I see with Hoffman signing with the Brewers? That's right, Jake Peavy. I don't know why I'm the only one who thinks it's plausible Peavy could wind up with the Brewers, but the two teams match up and now that two of Peavy's former teammates (Hoffman, Cameron) play for the team … that, you know, could sway his decision. I am under the impression he has a no-trade clause to the Brewers, but that could be waived knowing he has buddies already on the team, a dome to play in, and a quasi-competitive team to play for (the Padres are not).

Assuming Peavy would welcome a trade to Mil-town, Melvin could deal with the logjam in the middle of the infield. The core of the team is here through 2011 … except JJ Hardy. Melvin could either move Hardy to 2B and include Weeks in a package, or go gut and move Hardy and allow the savior Escobar to take his place. It's a tough call, but that's why Melvin gets paid the big bucks. Include San Diego savior in waiting Gwynn, a random pitcher, and ask for a discount from Towers for getting fleeced in the Linebrink trade and we have a deal.

A move of this nature with its added benefits of ruining the Cubs' offseason plans, will turn the January player signing malaise into a bandwagon bonanza.

MLB Network

2009-01-01T20:42:00.001-06:00

As I continue to gather my thoughts on what I hope the Brewers will accomplish now that the offseason has not gone their way, the MLB Network launched today on channel 122 for Time Warner Digital Cable subscribers in SE Wisconsin.

Right now they're airing the Don Larsen World Series perfect game on a loop with interspersed interviews with of Berra and Larsen with Bob Costas (which was strange after having seen him hosting the NHL's Winter Classic earlier today at Wrigley). I look forward to seeing classic, complete games and marvel at how little player mannerisms have changed through the years … though it is starteling at the rapid pacing of the game.

Of particular note for the Brewers fan, I was flipping through the Tivo schedule for the channel and there's an hour and a half "Harvey's Wallbangers" program about the '82 team airing Saturday, January 10^th at 11a. It appears to be a new program and look forward to that and whatever else MLB Network has in its vaults waiting to air.

Good times. And the Big Ten sucks.

C-c-c-c-combo Breaker

2008-12-11T07:55:00.001-06:00

First, Sabathia does the inevitable and signs with the Yankees, now Cameron is dealt to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera.

This isn't surprising, we've all thought that the Brewers wouldn't be much more than a marginal team without Sabathia in the rotation next year. We also knew that Cameron had a great season and there was no way he was going to be worth $10mm to a .500 or so team, so getting younger and cheaper is the call of the day. Perhaps the deal isn't finalized, but I thought the Yankees were going to send Ian Kennedy or another young pitcher (since they are apparently signing them all this offseason).

As for Cabrera, I like the guy and it's strange he had such an off season with NYY last season … PECOTA predicted he would have a .745 OPS while he came in at .642, which was even less than his first two season. Keep in mind that Cabrera will only be in his age 24 season, his fourth full season, so he is younger than the core young players on the Brewers, yet has more major league experience.

Keep logged on to BCB or Al for probably the best analysis of the deal.

So You’re Saying There’s a Chance? UPDATED: No

2008-12-09T16:25:00.002-06:00

Or so writes Tom H. My Tom H. filter always applies the Badger Blogger possibility, but the other sources make this more legitimate.

I happen to think this opening helps the Dodgers more than the Brewers. I cannot believe that the Giants are the prime consideration knowing (well, at least reading) Sabathia wants to go to a team committed to winning.

Fairly lackluster day at the meetings, I'm seeking action the next couple of days.

UPDATE: Yeah, pipe dream. At least now Melvin can do some stuff.

Hazy Sorta Maybe

2008-12-08T14:18:00.004-06:00

Apparently the Brewers have, indeed, upped the offer to Sabathia … but official word is lacking, thus vague stories are posted. Again, discussions between Sabathia, his agents, and GMs (Brewers, Yankees, whomever) are proceeding in a professional manner.

I think a player opt-out clause, even after two or three years, is a fairly enticing deal for both parties. Obviously if Sabathia decides to go his own way, he'll still have prime bargaining power because he'll still be at his peak. For the Brewers, they get two or three of Sabathia's best years and are able to devote those years to "go for it." As a benefit, there is a reasonable correlation (.17) between the percentage of innings pitched by the bullpen and the team's bullpen era … so with workhorse Sabathia and other hogging innings, the more effective the bullpen will be (the outlier on the far right were the Cleveland Indians, who benefitted by Cliff Lee and Sabathia sucking up innings and Wickman and company in the bullpen):

Obviously you don't want to buy Sabathia based merely on this little stat, but it's a nice side benefit that the Brewers realized last season. Bullpens are fickle no matter how much money you spend on them, the only sure thing is that they perform better if they aren't overworked.

Now, "going for it" with a huge offer to Sabathia is a risk especially if you consider the small market Brewers be stuck with a giant contract to a pitcher while not contending for the playoffs. But "going for it" in the next three years allows the Brewers to forgo some of their long term future and sweeping in unannounced on a currently available player, like FakeTeams ruminates here. I'd even throw Gwynn in that haul for the Padres, they're going need as much goodwill with the fans as possible.

(Edit: Borowoski, not Wickman. I have my portly reliever confused)

Brewers Re-Sign Coffey

2008-12-08T11:11:00.001-06:00

This is good news. He was picked up in September, so he couldn't be on the postseason roster, but appeared to enjoy his time with the crew. The likely major league bullpen as it stands now (Shouse outstanding):

McClung (R)
Villanueva (R)
Riske (R)
Julio (R)
Stetter (L)
Coffey (R)

Not terrible, though I do hope Julio isn't the guy finishing games. I'm getting the sense Melvin would rather have McClung in the bullpen … maybe McClung could be the closer? The fire-crotch can do everything!

The Beginning of Answers

2008-12-08T07:59:00.001-06:00

This is the inaugural day of MLB's Winter Meetings, so I'm hoping there's some sort of closure on the Sabathia hemming and hawing.

Until this point, the offseason has been spent signing random minor league free agents and shots in the dark, or allowing side dish players migrate to Seattle. I want some meat, this Brewers limbo is hurting my delicate sensibilities.

If you were to believe the rumors, apparently all the Brewers need to do with Sabathia is to add a sixth year and a little more money. I do not think that's the case, but it's nice to dream. That's probably why Sabathia and his agent has left the Brewers (and Yankees) offer out there so long … the time makes extra money or years a little more palatable. Arbitration has been declined, so whatever the case the Brewers are going to get something for their efforts.

Sheets is as good as gone if he continues to be delusional, but I hope Shouse re-signs and is used like old LOOGYS are supposed to be used. The Winter Meetings also lay the foundation for future Melvin trades with many of them culminating prior to Christmas, so if there is no movement, that doesn't mean that the mustache isn't tinkering.

This should be amusing.

Catching Up

2008-12-01T16:54:00.001-06:00

Alas, another spell of inactivity on this blog has happened. However, since it's December and the floodgates will open shortly, I might as well start posting again. Ever since I learned Greg Vaughn was HOF-eligible, I've gotten the urge to type about the Brewers.

Aside from a handful of non-roster invites and signings, the Brewers have played the waiting game … the same game they have been playing since offering Sabathia a contract on or around November 1^st. I think the entirety of the majors is waiting for Sabathia to make up his mind for the offseason to really begin. Clearly the Brewers can't move on without a definite answer to their proposal, but it's safe to assume $100mm/5yrs isn't going to cut it (there isn't official word anywhere that this proposal is actually the proposal on the table, all sources seem second hand conjectures which has now fallen into conventional wisdom). I think Sabathia and his agent have played the market perfectly thus far, issuing very little information from their camp and generally being fair about the whole thing. Who knows, perhaps the Yankees are outbidding themselves.

So while we await word from Sabathia, here are a few resolved offseason questions:

Q4: Should the Brewers pick up Mike Cameron's option?
A: Yes.

It's strange how the $10mm club option transformed from a remote possibility when he signed to conventional wisdom it would be picked up in September. Cameron had a good season at 35 (110 OPS) and proved that his power numbers were suppressed by playing in pitchers parks. Now, I'm not certain his past performance will be repeated in 2009 or he will be quite worth the money, but given Gwynn is his heir apparent, then I am fine with the idea. Should the rumor that he could be spun for Melky Cabrera and extra pitchers from the Yankees be true, I would be good with that result as well. Win-win for whichever direction the Brewers go.

Q5: Should the Brewers pick up Craig Counsell's option?
A: No.

I saw Counsell at the grocery store a couple weeks ago and should have asked him about this, but his kids were there and he was blocking my path to the baby carrots. This was one of those hairy decisions that I'm sure Melvin thought long and hard about it. The club option was for $3.4mm, which isn't too bad, but a bit much for a backup getting about 300 plate appearances. I believe the Brewers feel they can resign Counsell at a lower rate because of the team's leverage: Counsell is a veteran who lives in the area and wouldn't want be too far away from his family. I haven't seen one backup SS/2B on the market that would be markedly better than Counsell and his .350 or so OBP, I hope he returns.

Q6: Should the Brewers pick up Salomon Torres' option?
A: Yes, sorta

The other two option questions were addressed quickly and I thought they forgot about Torres, but obviously they knew he was going to retire. They picked up his $3.75mm option just as a precaution to retain his rights should he unretire, but this would have been a common sense pickup by the Brewers. Unfortunately, his retirement puts the Brewers into a tough bullpen situation with Riske, Villanueva, Stetter, Coffey, and McClung … and that's it. Once Sabathia's situation is cleared up (I can't believe the Brewers are still holding out the hope they'd sign him), I believe Melvin will make the trades he needs for 'pen help.

More questions as we see fit, but it's all a waiting game right now. No FA wants to set the market, there's incredible pressure on them not to leave money on the table for their own sake and pressure from their fellow players, and the union, for the same reasons. I believe with the way Sabathia has played the market thus far, he'll make this decision all by himself and won't let undue influence cloud his judgment.

Oof

2008-11-13T14:32:00.001-06:00

I've been hesitant to write anything of substance about the Brewers off-season yet because many decisions hinged on whether Sabathia was going to re-sign with the team or not. Obviously, the tide has turned in the past couple of days that is making me feel worse about the possibility of improving the team marginally for 2009.

First is Solomon Torres' decision to retire, which exacerbates an already tenuous bullpen situation. Next was word that the Yankees are going to offer $150mm/6yrs to Sabathia, clearly an offer he can't refuse. Lastly, with word that the Marlins are deconstructing again, Kevin Gregg was reported to be on the chopping block … and was promptly picked up by the Cubs. And the Peavy dream of mine was just that.

I don't think Melvin was caught flat-footed by any of this, but for a Brewers fan with a taste of the postseason, these events are disappointing.

Macha Macha Man

2008-10-30T14:56:00.001-05:00

The selection of Ken Macha as the next manager of the Brewers hardly comes as a surprise. He was apparently offered the job in 2002, has a track record of regular season success, and was the best of the three candidates (among Randolph and Brenly) remaining. So what does this mean? Not much.

There's a joke to be made that this is really Macha's first managerial job since his time in Oakland was being a mere puppet of Billy Beane and the Moneyball theory. For my own sake, I am hoping that some of that wisdom will continue as he heads up the Brewers … and I will kick the nearest dog if I see a regular hitter bunt a player from second to third. Again, I think a manager has slim bearings on the outcome of the game.

Looking through Macha's Oakland past, the stats tell a little of what's to come (if it was him pulling the trigger). Oakland featured near the fewest stolen bases and attempts in the majors (SB major league ranking: 2003 29^th, 2004 28^th, 2005 30^th, 2006 23^rd), so that points to less aggression on the basepaths (that means you, Corey Hart). Oakland also ranked in the top 10 of each of Macha's seasons in walks, though I do not expect the Brewers to be suddenly taking those pitches because that was part of the Beane valuation method. The A's also ranked between 27^th and 30^th in the league in sacrifice hits, another stat I am interested in seeing implemented (with the pitcher batting, I can see this less as a concern). On the pitching side, I am most interested in the theory that managers use the best pitcher available in the highest leverage situations.

So, I am anxious to see if these clues to Macha's past have some bearing on his tenure with the Brewers. I think the casual fans will see how well his teams performed in Oakland and have unreasonable expectations, but I think having an adult* manning the ship will help this team.

(* = not positive that Macha is an adult)

Q3: Can the Brewers retain Sabathia?

2008-10-24T15:38:00.001-05:00

I think this particular question will not be decided until St. Nick's Day, so this is definitely not the first post or the last post regarding this topic.

Clearly, the Brewers would be a no doubt contender next season should Sabathia buck the FA pitcher trend and resign. Without him, the Brewers will more than likely take a step back, though I happen to not think it will be as large of a step back as others. The question running through Melvin and Attanasio's head should be "Is that going to be worth it … paying a guy great sums of cash to increase our odds of making the postseason significantly the next two seasons and hurting the team's chance to compete the following two or three?" There is a limit the Brewers can offer, too, and if the Yankees and the LA teams get involved, you can probably count the hometown team out. So let's break this down:

What the Brewers have going for them:
Obviously we all know Sabathia continuously spewed rainbows about the city and the team while he was here. That's all grand, but it doesn't deviate from the norm when it comes to players going into a free agent season (remember, Sabathia said roughly the same things about Cleveland, but turned down a lucrative offer to stay earlier this year). However, I caught two items of note from his late-season comments that work in the team's favor … 1) him telling his agent to pipe down about his supposed overuse and 2) his desire to get the signing process out of the way quickly.

The agent was kindly reminded who was paying whom, and Sabathia's (I hope genuine) desire to get the signing process over means he may "settle" to get the ordeal over with. It works the same way when you're trying to sell your house … you want to get rid of it quickly, but the real estate agent tells you that you'll eventually get a better price if you keep it on the market longer. The latter is a death knell for the Brewers, but the former works to their advantage. We all know Sabathia is going to cost a lot of money, but why not get him at a slight discount.

Second, Sabathia's age. I haven't read about the length of contract they desire, but Sabathia pitching in his age 28 season in 2009, may want a shorter term contract … like four years. I say four because that still puts him in line for another huge contract before his age 32 season, the year in which declining performance takes hold (not as much in pitchers, but still significant). Perhaps a sweetener could be a player option for the fifth year. Also, Suppan's contract comes off the books after 2010, and all Fielder, Weeks, and Hart will be granted free agency after 2011 (should they last that long), so the payroll flexibility for backloading the contract is possible. Heck, a few more seasons of 3mm at the gate will make it worth it.

Lastly is a gamut of small, generally meaningless (in a macro sense) of the reasons for Sabathia to stay: large African-American contingent on the team, National League franchise, homeboy David Riske signed through 2010, cool weather with a retractable roofed stadium, competent management, and a competitive team on the field in a generally weak division.

What the Brewers have against them:
Simple: history. I don't recall any big name pitcher entering free agency resigning with their previous team. Santana was traded before he could do so and signed a large contract surely to be a benchmark in any Sabathia negotiations. Past results do not predict future performance, but it's safe to say that this is a fairly daunting mass of previous experience we've seen time and time again.

If the Brewers' initial offer goes nowhere, then the Brewers have no shot. I would conservatively estimate the Brewers' chance of retaining Sabathia at 2%, which is still within three standard deviations of the average (I'm trying to be optimistic).

Certainly more in depth postings here or elsewhere about Sabathia's worth (I mean, he'll only factor into about 22% of season games and his top comparable pitcher is Freddy Garcia), but I will be monitoring the situation via MLB Trade Rumors and other places. Al believes the Brewers should offer 5yr/$95mm, which is reasonable. We shall see (my guesstimate: Dodgers).

Related:
Sabernomics thinks 6yr/$144mm

Terrible News

2008-10-22T13:32:00.001-05:00

From Rotoworld: Mariners named Jack Zduriencik their executive vice president and general manager of baseball operations.

I'm sure he'll do a good job rebuilding the club, I'm just too selfish and wanted to keep him on the Brewers. Of course, Melvin will now be able to work out some sweet deals with Seattle (Beltre anyone?).

Upgrades Available?

2008-10-22T08:57:00.001-05:00

I haven't seen this mentioned across the real Brewers fan sites, so I'll bring it up here.

The Padres have made it known that they are shopping Jake Peavy. While I haven't seen the Brewers come up as a possible destination, I think Doug Melvin should at least investigate the possibility. Apparently he has at least a partial no-trade clause, but no word on where the Brewers stand. He is owed $8mm in 2009 (final year of arbitration), then signed a 3yr/$52mm for 2010-12 with another club option for 2013 (and at $22mm, probably no exercised at all). For a pitcher of his caliber, even with the surface area of Petco, I think that's a reasonable sum of money for the man and not out of bounds for a small market like Milwaukee. Who would I offer? Without investigating the needs of San Diego much, I would send them Gwynn, Weeks, and Bush (this is assuming the Brewers are serious about moving Hardy to second and giving Escobar the SS job). Why not? The move would probably save money for a pitcher of slightly less caliber of Sabathia, plus it wouldn't hurt too much of the offense. The Padres have fleeced the Brewers before.

Today came word via Fake Teams that the Dodgers will listen to offers for Russell Martin. No doubt this would be an offensive upgrade to Kendall, and since Kendall is sticking around one more year he would be able to teach some defensive and pitcher-handling techniques to the young slugger (and hopefully not how to consistently ground out to shortstop). I don't know if a match can be made, but the Dodgers showed interest in Bill Hall last winter, though his value is significantly lesser this time around. Again, this would be another avenue the Brewers could look into … Martin has slightly more major league experience than Ryan Braun, so I suggest Melvin proceed with caution.

Well, Duh

2008-10-18T14:29:00.001-05:00

I apologize to my two readers for the lack of content, I've been going through a normal period of decompression following the season. I believe that the proper burial of a modestly successful season and a little distance is good for the perception.

I've been compiling a set of questions that need to be addressed sooner or later this offseason, so first and foremost was the decision on Melvin. I thought it was fairly straightforward and once he started interviewing field managers I knew a three-year deal was imminent. Attanasio knows better than to have a GM with one year left on his contract sign a new manager for beyond that tenure. So, yeah, Melvin will still be around.

It's hard to even think why people wanted to replace Melvin in the first place beyond the "change because change is good" theory. Aside from a couple of deals (Linebrink last season, maybe the Suppan signing?), Melvin and his team has crafted a good team with little resources and has turned garbage into gold often times. His deals are constantly evolving to what the team actually needs as the core players become more seasoned, which will make this offseason interesting. What I can fault Melvin on is his loyalty to obvious dead-end Ned Yost and the dearth of starting pitchers in the organization, but I consider those relatively small faults. I'm glad Melvin will still be around, I really appreciate the man.

However, question number two of the postseason, the hiring of a field manager, has me concerned. I knew that they would look for an experienced manager and didn't think Sveum would be back, but the names mentioned thus far are monstrously unappealing. I'm not sure if the names of Brenly, Showalter, and Macha were arbitrarily brought up by Haudricourt or if they were based on evidence, but I'm not stoked about any of them.

Showalter is a curmudgeon, thus the whole untucking of the jersey thing will go away, but he does have success with ascendant teams. Macha has also had success, but I think that has more to do with the Oakland/Beane system. Bob Brenly is possibly the least informed of the lot mentioned and pulled off some serious smoke and mirrors to win the 2001 World Series (see, starting pitching makes EVERYONE look smart). Melvin apparently showed interest in Showalter and may have offered Macha job in the initial managerial search in 2002.

Other names mentioned by Haudricourt flippantly include Jim Tracy, Grady Little, and Davey Johnson. Well, if we're just throwing names out there, how about Larry Bowa, Bobby Valentine, and Willie Randolph. I'm not convinced that previous managerial success demonstrably important, I think most of the time it depends on the context the manager is placed in. Yost didn't suddenly become a supremely better manager from 2003 through this season, he much better talent in which to succeed with.

Joe Torre apparently was dog food when the Yankees hired him, but now he's regarded as a master of personalities and a dugout czar. This entry has become unwieldy enough, but of the names above, none are very appealing. I guess that comes with having "experience," at least we Brewers fans will have a primer on what to bitch about next year. Of the names above, I could stomach a Macha (much to the chagrin of In-Between Hops) and Randolph. I heard Macha filling in for a NESN broadcaster earlier this year and he sounded intelligent and brought up a handful of statistics that he said he computed, so at least he has that going for him.

Time will tell, the postseason doesn't officially begin for a few more weeks.

Offseason Roster Preview

2008-10-07T19:32:00.004-05:00

This is where I present the 11/1 roster and sets up the off-season trades, waiver wire pick ups, and free agent signings. Those more interested in rosters have a better grasp of who is available, so I'll stick with who the Brewers actually have within their power. Each question deserves its own post, so they'll be spread out over the next five months. Pitchers in bold.

Core Roster:

The salary total on these players, assuming modest raises in arbitration and a large one for Fielder ($9mm), should be around $55mm. It's just a guess at this point, who knows what the raises will be like or if Hardy, Hart, or Fielder sign real live baseball contracts.

Team Options:

These won't be cleared up until A) Melvin is resigned or a new GM is in place or B) the situation with FA pitchers is resolved. Right now I am apt to pick up the option on Cameron and Torres and decline Counsell. Cameron deserves its own post weighing available CF values and whether he's worth it, and Torres because of effectiveness and the tenuous bullpen situation going into the offseason (all the Brewers have right now in the established reliever role are Riske and Villanueva).

Filler:

There's no way around this, the other players on this list are going to be filler, trade bait (Gwynn, I'm looking at you), or an emergency starter (Escobar). I think the four players starting this image can be had if they are asked. I think Capuano will have value to hang onto even though he won't be able to pitch until July 2009.

The others ... AAAA players who have options, pinch hitters, situational pitchers (I think Stetter will make the roster outright next year), and whatnot. I think the backup catcher next season should be Salome, Palmisano, or Rottino and provide a bridge to 2008 first rounder Lawrie (if all goes well). An interesting player on this list is Jay Gibbons who hit well in the minors after almost being excommunicated out of baseball for steroid abuse.

As they say on Univision ... deciones, deciones, deciones.

Decompression

2008-10-06T17:20:00.001-05:00

Thus begins the postseason. Obviously "decompressing" from the season is the order of the day, or the week … the cleansing begins and the cheering one-self up through inanity and other real live events, reading up on politics, read about the Packers losing to the Falcons at Lambeau, horrible financial news, whatever. It pales in comparison, and clearly importance, to the Brewers being bounced from the playoffs. Jim Powell watched five episodes of The Office, I watched Monty Python and the Holy Grail, and thankfully the sun is finally out.

Perhaps it's another irrational feeling, these damn unchecked emotions about a local sports team tend to overwhelm, but I think the Brewers are still going to be in good shape next season. Most of it is context considering the Brewers are in the NL, but the offense, which will consist of players between the ages of 23-27, will still be pretty good. I also find myself reminding myself that a team with average pitching, average hitting, and average defense finishes with 81 wins, something of which I believe will be attainable in 2009.

Other teams would kill for the core Brewers team going into next season: Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Weeks, Hart, Gallardo, and Parra. If the team manages to pull off the virtually implausible task of signing Sabathia (multi-year below market) or Sheets (for one year), then the playoff fires will be stoked again. I think it would be a mistake to get rid of Doug Melvin, but the manager of the team is negligible. Should Sveum return or they hire a more mature/experienced manager, it means little to me. Suppan isn't the reason the team got bounced from the postseason, certainly a part, but in the end he was the 8^th best starting pitcher on the team and, seemingly, the only one able to start that day.

Many questions abound and they'll be answered in due time. There are a few conditional questions, like the team options on Cameron (yes), Counsell (no), and Torres (yes) that won't be decided until a few issues clear up. Since my schedule has also opened up, I'll create a compendium of Q's that need to be answered this postseason or November 1^st, whichever seems most important. Tomorrow I'll post what the roster will look like on November 1^st, the day players can file for free agency.

So we all can return to our normal lives, pondering questions of what could have been, should have been, and ought have been go into this interesting offseason after this watershed of a season.

Ouch

2008-10-05T15:14:00.001-05:00

I can't think of a worse way to end a season than being shut down by Joe Blanton.

Hart

2008-10-02T17:24:00.002-05:00

If Moyer were not starting Saturday, I would seriously consider starting Tony Gwynn, Jr. over Corey Hart. Hart is completely out of sorts right now … swinging at the first pitch from a guy who just walked a run in? OK.

Concern Troll Alert

2008-10-01T11:36:00.003-05:00

This is certainly an unfamiliar time to be a Brewers fan. Typically after the season is over, I forget about baseball and rarely watch any of the excruciatingly long post season games. Of course, they could be excruciating wastes of time if the Brewers don't put up a fight.

The ladies at Brew Crew Ball have posted a voluminous amount of content on the series, plus Al has been posting more frequent (though much dealing with post-season issues), so there is no shortage of stuff to read. So here are my thoughts, basically a list of concerns, that have surfaced from a season of watching the team that will make or break the team in the postseason. The national media hasn't necessarily paid attention to the Brewers (noted by the frequent misgivings about the Brewers' bullpen and John Kruk's semi-coherent rant on the defense last night), so, as a fan, I present my concern troll issues.

01. Offense
Obviously the offense hasn't been itself in September, but I'd extend the offensive regression date to either Braun's injury (8/9) or the All-Star break (7/18).


TEAM         OPS   ERA
Pre-Break    .759  4.09
Post-Break   .753  3.52
Post-Injury  .738  3.45
September    .681  4.12

It has definitely been a series of diminishing returns for the team, which is slightly strange when you consider their youth and supposed vigor. The pitching got a lot better as the season wore on, which is why the Brewers were able to still continue their winning ways. September could have been much more tragic.

With the pitching seemingly righted, the offense needs to get back on track and I'm not certain how to rectify this. I'm warmed by the admission that Dale Sveum realized that the small ball theory he instituted once he took over, so I am hoping the Brewers return to their free swinging ways. What Sveum did very well was to play the percentages much better than Yost was willing to do … lefty hitters against righty pitchers (Counsell/Durham starts, many pitching changes for the right matchups). What I would like to see is the lineup take the first pitch of their first at-bat. Sure, the Phillies staff is more than likely to throw a strike, but in order to get to the soft underbelly of the Phils, the Brewers need to increase the pitch counts of Hamels and ilk. Hey, maybe the pitch will be a ball (check out the OPS in count-specific at-bats at BR).

If the Brewers don't hit in the postseason, they will not make it far. Simple as that.

02. Corey Hart
An anathema for the offense, Hart has looked like garbage the entire month of September. I've always been a Hart backer, I already know he'll have a somewhat low OBP, but he'll give you those 20 HRs and 20 SBs you need on your fantasy team. However, Hart really needs to take a few pitches and swing at something in the strike zone. I'm not in favor of him bunting, either. He's one of the guys who got the team here, so he's going to have to play, but the perpetual suck he's been in for the past 30 days has me wary. I've always considered Hart to be a slightly less amazing version of Robin Yount … and you know who appeared in the World Series in his 26^th seasonal age? Yes, Yount.

03. Closer
I know, this goes against everything I loathe about the position and the irrelevant statistic, but Torres' recent struggles have me concerned. All season long we've been hearing that Torres needs to pitch frequently to be effective, that he's incredibly durable, that he can deliver babies in the back seat of a taxi. He stepped up when Gagne was having issues and performed admirably. However, most every pitch he has thrown has been up in the zone the last few weeks. As much as it pains me to type this, I think Gagne should go back to closing should Torres muff one of these games.

04. Starters converted to Long/Short Reliever
I'm specifically speaking of McClung, Villanueva, Parra, and Bush (probably). McClung came through late in the season, Villanueva has fallen off a bit, and both Parra and Bush are a wild card. I wonder how they'll be used (piggy-back starters? Situational relievers? Long relief? Pinch hitters/runners?) and how they'll come back after a day or two of rest. In all likelihood this is most of the starting rotation for next year, so many eyes will be upon their performance.

05. Baserunning
I despise seeing outs on the basepaths, and the team has frequently raised my ire. I'd like to refer to it as the Chad Moeller complex … consistently running into outs after driving in a run and the throw to the plate being cutoff. Seriously, it's an epidemic and moreso with Wavin' Sveum at the helm. I would make a rule that only Mike Cameron should independently make the call as to whether he tries to advance a base or not. All 24 other players should move station to station and take the requisite base depending on where the ball was hit (in the alley or down the line? Move two bases). I will stab myself in the thigh if I see Fielder or Hart crouch into the fetal position as Jimmy Rollins tags them out between 2^nd and 3^rd.

These are the biggest issues that will cause my stomach to turn during the, at the very least, three game series. I have confidence in the pitching staff and, amazingly, am not concerned about either Gallardo or Suppan because, should they get into trouble, Sveum will not hesitate to make a move. This is go time and I hope go time lasts for at least 11 wins.

Bullets in the Gun

2008-09-29T20:59:00.001-05:00

CC Sabathia

Pitches thrown:

2007 - 3567 (104.9/start)
2008 - 3814 (108.9/start)

OMG ERIC WEDGE IS RUINING CC'S VALUE?1!!!?1!11

On a more serious note, check out Sabathia's video game numbers with the Brewers at BR. OPS+ of 262.

Exorcising the Suffering

2008-09-29T12:40:00.002-05:00

For years I saved the Monday after the season ended Journal mainly for the stats. This stopped at least a decade ago because the final stats I was looking for were accompanied by a somber Milwaukee Brewers story about rebuilding, another wayward season, more losing ways, etc. I think I'll buy a newspaper for the first time in five years today.

Yesterday was definitely a memorable one, in about a 30 minute span the Mets started to lose, Braun homered, Sabathia closed it out, and then the Mets finally succumbed. I don't need to reiterate how big it is for the franchise to make it to the postseason (let's leave that to the sheltered clowns in Bristol, CT), but it was a slight exorcism of the years of suffering us fans have gone through. It's a great, and strange, feeling.

Clearly this team is flawed and I had all but written off the team after the devastating loss to the Cubs a week ago (a week ago!). And, sure, this postseason birth should have been clinched much earlier, but here we are, this is the situation we have been dealt. No one could have predicted Curt Schilling's economic recovery plan, either.

It's hard to completely lay bare the agony a fan of this team has gone through for all these years. I remember in '92 how close things were and how unfair many thought the David Cone acquisition by the Blue Jays was, but it wasn't as hurtful because it appeared as if the team was still going to be good the next season. Nope, many years of futility followed without even a sniff of the post season until June 2006 and first half of last season plus the final two weeks … but they were premature. The 2008 team tried its best to follow in their 2007 footsteps, but in the end (and thanks to a moderate Mets collapse), they snuck in. Now I hope they make some noise.

I'm glad that I decided not to write about next season after the Cubs loss … believe me, it took all of my superpowers not to throw something up here about the starting staff or which hitter needs to go for a solid pitcher. Alas, I get to delay that a little while longer and I'm glad I put it off in the first place.

The term "hero" gets thrown around too much in professional sports, but the following players and situation will be fondly remembered for their clutch efforts during a lovely final week of the season:

9/21: Prince Fielder's double and homer are the difference in a rare September offensive outburst. If Fielder hadn't gotten hot this month, this team would not be in the playoffs.
9/23: Fielder again, two-run homer in the bottom of the 9^th to beat Pittsburgh.
9/24: CC Sabathia shutting down the Pirates on three-days rest while striking out 11 in seven innings. The win pulled the Brewers into a tie with the Mets.
9/25: Yovanni Gallardo returning for the first time since May to strike out seven in four innings, then allowing Ryan Braun to hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 10^th inning.
9/26: Seth McClung … four innings of shut out relief. Rickie Weeks hits a three-run homer in the 7^th inning.
9/27: A frustrating day all around, I don't know what it is with the Brewers and soft-tossers, but the familiar situation arises again. Sheets didn't have it, so his Brewers tenure more than likely ends with a whimper. Russell Branyan almost pulled a Natural-like finale.
9/28: Sabathia and Braun, the two MVP's of the team, are the deciders. Kudos also go to Counsell, a favorite whipping boy, for earning the bases loaded walk after Corey Hart swung at three straight balls.
Overall: The bullpen's effort in a series of games … 9/17, 9/20, 9/21, 9/23, and 9/25 plus other short (<2 IP) outings in between. Dale Sveum exhibited his willingness to go to the bullpen early and often to keep games from getting out of hand … and more often than not the pen came through. Again, this team would not be in the playoffs without their combined efforts. Since Sveum took over, the bullpen has a 3.33 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, but more importantly they shut the opponent down when needed to be shut down … since the final Cincy game, the pen has a 1.91 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Gangsta.

The past week couldn't have been scripted any better and I'm glad I set aside everything I was doing to enjoy it and see all of the key parts. I know I'm just an interested observer in the whole process, but it was a great ride.

I think the "noise" the Brewers could make in the playoffs relies solely on the offense. The offense wasn't any better this past week than it had been all month, it was the pitching that stepped up big time, so as the offense goes, so will the postseason chances. There is no way the Phillies, Cubs, or Dodgers will go into a hitting funk. I will post more about expectations within the next few days.

Photo: Benny Sieu/JS Online

Hello, Philly!

2008-09-28T15:37:00.002-05:00

I Can See It Now

2008-09-28T15:24:00.001-05:00

New Brewers manager Ned Yost convinces new Brewers GM Doug Melvin in 2002 to swing a deal for Wes Helms for the express purpose of conditioning him to hit a home run on the final game of the 2008 season to help the Brewers to the postseason. The same Ned Yost says "We'll ingrain it in his mind for a few seasons, then let him find work elsewhere, but as long as he knows to hit a homer in that game against the Mets, our plan is foolproof."

Later the same day, Yost tells Melvin that he'll tank the team in the 2006 season so that they can be in position to draft Matt LaPorta in 2007. "The dude can rake and he'd be perfect trade bait in the '08 season to get the best pitcher in the game," Yost predicted. "That pitcher will totally get us into the playoffs in 2008 if we use him on short rest and have him pitch the final game. In tandem with the Helms and golden-armed pitcher, our draft pick of 2005 will hit the deciding homer in game 162 in 2008."

Ned Yost: Nostradamus.

Postseason Odds: Meaningful Game 162 of 162

2008-09-28T12:47:00.001-05:00

From Baseball Prospectus:

Wild Card:
54.58% Mets
45.32% Brewers

I'm sick to my stomach with all sorts of irrational emotions right now, I so want the Brewers to have a celebratory orgy at Miller Park this afternoon. The Mets, currently in a rain delay, will be on TBS should it get underway somewhat soon. Brewers on FSN (not HD, dammit), radio WTMJ, Packers on Fox, radio on KTI. The world is upside down.

I say if Sabathia puts forth a solid effort and the Brewers make it to the postseason, he will win the Cy Young. If not, it will be Webb and his 22 wins. Postseason baseball is so close … the NLDS starts Wednesday.

3mm attendance: check
90 wins: not yet
postseason: not yet

Real Magic Numbers: 3,000,000 & 90

2008-09-27T12:46:00.001-05:00

If not to belabor the magic that the season was supposed to be, the two goals Mark Attanasio asked for this season was 3mm in the seats and 90 wins … both of which can be accomplished today.

Attendance at Miller Park right now is 2,977,871 (9^th most in the majors), so the now standard 44K will push the team above that this afternoon. A win will put the team at 90 for the season, most since 1992 (92 wins).

And if the Mets lose tonight, the real goal of reaching the postseason will be locked. This could be a phenomenal day.

Postseason Odds: Saturday

2008-09-27T09:23:00.001-05:00

From Baseball Prospectus:

Wild Card:
76.43% Brewers
21.99% Mets
1.58% Phillies

1. The Phillies win the division and the Brewers win the wild card; 61%.

2. The Phillies win the division, while the Mets and Brewers tie for the wild card: 27%.

I certainly like those odds. I want to refrain from writing anything of substance until this is all over, but a boatload of Brewers have stepped up this past week. I'm happy Weeks joined the clutch party last night and that Corey Hart wasn't such a liability as he has been the past month or so.

Early game today, 3p on FOX. It's strange to hear "Brewers" and "magic number" in the same sentence, even if the magic number is the amount of games left in the season.

Postseason Odds: Friday

2008-09-26T10:30:00.001-05:00

From Baseball Prospectus:

Wild Card:
42.94% Brewers
38.60% Mets
18.44% Phillies
0.02% Astros (if this happens, I will jump out the window)

24% chance Phillies win division, Mets/Brewers tie for Wild Card

Last night was a very exciting night, I don't recall many late season, late game heroics by all teams involved (including the Twins over the Sox). If I weren't such a homer, I'd definitely root for all teams that are located off I-94 (Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Tigers).

At the beginning of the season, I predicted 88 wins for the Brewers. I do hope that I am wrong.

Postseason Odds

2008-09-25T10:41:00.001-05:00

By way of Baseball Prospectus:

Wild Card
47.88% Brewers
39.59% Mets
12.42% Phillies
0.09% Astros

The Brewers' odds yesterday? 29%

The 3.7% of the Season that Matters

2008-09-23T15:28:00.001-05:00

So you're telling me there's a chance?
- Lloyd Christmas, Dumb & Dumber

This isn't quite the position I hoped the Brewers would be in a mere three weeks ago, but it is reality and I've come to grips with it.

With the Mets losing last night, the Brewers are now one game out of a Wild Card and if the team reclaims the magic it had in June through August, I think it's doable. After all, the Brewers at the very least need to win one more game than the Mets to tie and force a one game playoff next Monday at Shea Stadium, or win two more games to win the Wild Card outright. I am hoping for the latter because I would hate to waste a Sabathia/Sheets start or tempt fate with a Suppan start.

The Brewers have the "easier" final six games of the season … three against the Pirates (of which the Brewers have owned this season) and three against the Cubs (of which the Brewers have lucked into a few series wins earlier in the season). The Mets face the Cubs for three and the division mates the Marlins for three wrapping up the lifetime of Shea Stadium. The Marlins aren't a pushover, but the Mets are 9-6 against them this season, and they are surprisingly clinging to a .05% chance of making the postseason.

BP's playoff odds have the Brewers at 34% and the Mets at 60.9% … which makes sense. Given the month slumber of the Brewers offense, defense, and pitching, overcoming one game may be a challenge. Of course, it seems at least the offense has woken up some (thanks to Prince Fielder). We shall see.

I'm not a superstitious person, but all season long when I have paid attention to the Brewers, they typically lose. When I pay attention to the Cubs, they typically win. So tonight I will be watching the Cubs/Mets play, I think the team needs as much help as it can get. Both the Brewers and Mets have recently become known for late season collapses, so I am prepared for neither team to win the rest of the week.

And away we go.

Hope and/or Luck emerges, maybe

2008-09-22T15:50:00.001-05:00

The recent play of the Brewers isn't quite awe inspiring, but the solid win yesterday in tandem with the Mets loss, plus a day off today, may be enough for the team to right the ship for the final regular season week of 2008. Of course, it may be too little, too late. Today may be the most important day of an inauspicious and tragic month for the Brewers.

The event today I muse about is the Cubs/Mets game tonight. The two teams start a four game set and I'm concerned that the Cubs won't put forth their best effort to do away with the Mets (their probable first round playoff opponent should everything else remain the same). I mean, they already have Jason Marquis starting the game, so they're already down four runs a few hours prior to the first pitch.

It's been stated in various online sites (normally those to the immediate right, but not on this site) that the Cubs would much rather see any team other than the Brewers in the post season. The Brewers, should they regain their moxy, presumably match up better against the Cubs in a four game set than the others do, so I guess it makes sense. The Cubs, however, already have the best record in the NL sewed up and could forgo intensive competition for the W in favor of resting their ailing pitching staff and resting the veteran regulars.

Although I think it may be bordering on heresy even thinking that the Slow Walking Pinella would take a dive, but in this case I can see it as plausible. I'm just sayin', I hope the Cubs don't let up because everything is locked up and their nemesis 90 minutes to the north wants a shot at the post season … c'mon, the futility of both these ballclubs should amount to a mutual respect of the two fanbases. I want the Brewers to be one game out instead of two at the end of tonight.

This is the End, My Friends

2008-09-18T17:39:00.001-05:00

I'm too rageful to write a thoughtful post at the moment. The 9^th inning meltdown totally wasted my coffee buzz and I feel only vitriol will spew from my calloused fingertips at the moment. Barring the seasonal Mets collapse, but find it hard to believe in all my irrational fandom glory this team getting into the playoffs.

IV. The Answer to Life, the Universe, and Everything?

2008-09-15T18:05:00.001-05:00

As much as the stat community and those wound-too-tightly fans, I don't want a robot making all the calls in the dugout. Sure, "magic" may increase, but then none of us would have anything to complain about if the prevailing percentages of the past 108 seasons of MLB would be the only thing followed. "Gut" does have place … like playing guys when their kids are born, on their birthdays, on bobblehead days, etc.

Unfortunately, gut only takes you so far, and Yost's reversion to that organ, and not the brain, has gotten the Brewers into trouble this September. If the players weren't going to step it up on their own, after a few games they should have been told "It's time to step it up, honky," and if they were, then it's attributable to Yost not changing his tune or yelling at them so much in the past they became desensitized to the urgency of the situation. I mean, late season games last year against the Pirates or September games against the second place team in the Wild Card race in which you are leading necessitating the same verbal berating from Yost? I don't know.

Take, for instance, these team W/L records for the season:

Vs. winning teams: 33-43 (.434)
Vs. losing teams: 50-24 (.676)

This is indicative of a paper tiger ballclub. Is it Yost being outmanaged or the players being outperformed? Maybe it's the preparation or the mindset, maybe it's the color of the jerseys, I don't know. I do know that record against winning teams would be much worse off if the Brewers haven't had such success against the Cardinals this year, otherwise it would have been an atrocious 23-38 record (.377). The only other above .500 teams the Brewers have more wins than losses against are Houston (8-7) and Toronto (3-0, but remember that's just prior to them firing their manager).

Sveum, the man and his decisions, won't change this, but the record against good teams needs to change if this is, indeed, the year the team is "going for it." The current mindset of the team would result in a three and out of they made it to the playoffs, but I don't think that would have happened. The players are ultimately responsible for the final 12 games and beyond, no amount of Sveum meddling will derail them at this point (unless Shouse faces more right-handed batters).

Stepping back a bit, this is the most talented Brewers team since '92 (and probably since '82) with the benefit of having an extra playoff opportunity that team did not have. The Brewers have the best 1-2 punch in the starting rotation (one of which has Cy Young aspirations), a 50-homer player from a year ago, the "best" defensive CF have one of his best offensive seasons, ROY and MVP candidate in LF, second best NL SS, a solid RF who looks more and more like Andre Dawson or Robin Yount each passing day, and other competent players on the bench and on the field. The '08 Brewers are assembled to win this year and that's it until at least 2010, perhaps beyond.

The move of Yost is a desperate, but not risky, move to vault this team of "what-ifs" and monstrous potential into the playoffs. I want to see this happen and I have an unhealthy interest into a sport that doesn't mean much to most people outside of the Milwaukee metroplex.

I just want to see some winning baseball, dammit.

III. Yost and the Rug

2008-09-15T17:24:00.001-05:00

First of all, I feel bad for Yost, I really do. Setting aside my pervious assertions that he should have been fired after the 2006 season for ineptness and after the 2007 season for embarrassing behavior, Yost took over a 100-loss team and excruciatingly slowly saw them become a playoff contender. He stuck to the major league job, at least made a proper environment for the young stars to excel in, but the rug was pulled out just as things got good. Maybe the Yost Theory of Management is capped at 83 wins.

I hope that Yost becomes Buck Showalter in this regard. Despite being an old codger, Showalter managed the ascension of Yankees in the early '90's and the Diamondbacks in the late '90's just before they had large-scale success. Both times he was fired before achieving that success and I really hope Yost is the new Showalter. Sometimes a management style is most suited for a particular type of employee … Joe Torre seems to have it with veterans, Eric Wedge has it with youngsters, Rene Lachemann has it with terrible teams. Yost apparently has it with rebuilding, patient teams.

That 83 win limit has set, the team lost its way, and apparently sick of hearing Yost and his three pots of coffee a day directions, the players tuned him out. They believe they were too talented or too good to be listening to this same messenger. Again, I'm jumping to conclusions about the situation, but I believe this was a very large part of the decision for this rash, but warranted, move by the braintrust.

I'm not certain what Yost will do now. I don't think he's going back to stuffing animals in southern Georgia or becoming a Jeff Gordon fanboy … maybe he'll relax and read the newspaper once in a while, quietly following the sunset of Brett Favre's career while learning what the internet is. More likely, he may go back to be with his mentor Bobby Cox in Atlanta or help rebuild the Mariners in Seattle (now THAT would be a match made in heaven for the perpetually strung out on caffeine coffeeholic Yost).

In any case, Yost was the bridge from the suckage Brewers to the competitive Brewers and he'll forever be remembered for that. He may be the man most likely to root against further success for the team, but if the Brewers make it to the post season he should be given the credit. The Oracle said his limit is 83 wins a season, but you need to win at least five more to make it to the postseason. Ergo, a new face barking orders.