Fun Fact

Ryan Braun has been in the majors exactly two years and four days.

Wherein I Make a Case for Erik Bedard in 4/4 Timing

This isn't a devil's advocate screed, but I want to write something about Erik Bedard being a better target than Jake Peavy if the Brewers do indeed make a move. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Peavy on the Brewers, but Bedard may be a more realistic player, here's why in eight parts:

01 Salary commitments (assuming acquisition 7/1; from Cot's)

Bedard: Signed through 2009; $3.875mm liability
Peavy: Signed through 2012; $56.5mm liability

I realize that the Brewers' competitive window ends in 2011-12 with the departure of Fielder and others, but that's a lot of salary and years to take on for a small market team. If only something could be done with Suppan's contract…

02 Fewer commitments and a lesser perceived value = less needs to be given up.

Any Peavy trade would require one or two of the top 10 prospects in the organization. I'm thinking that Escobar really is untouchable, which would leave Gamel and/or one of the young pitchers (Jeffres?). The Padres want good young pitching, so unless the Brewers are going to get applied credit for Inman/Thatcher, the match isn't quite there. The Mariners will take any prospect. The price for Bedard would increase dramatically if Peavy is traded before him.

03 No trade contract

Bedard does not have a no-trade contract. Peavy does, and he's finicky.

04 AL to NL (aka inflated numbers)

In limited innings against the National League, Bedard has a 1.94 ERA in almost 93 innings, 10.6 K/IP, and a 1.07 WHIP. Peavy's been seen for eight seasons in the NL, so Bedard's numbers will likely improve.

05 Injury Perception / Age

If Bedard is traded, he's clearly going to have a physical, but whatever issues he had last season he appears to be over them. Bedard is also two years older than Peavy, so he's more of a risk, therefore of lesser value to suitors.

06 Lefty

Duh. If Bedard is acquired, I think Parra would be sent to the bullpen to solve his struggles. R/L duo of Gallardo and Bedard? Gangsta.

07 Canadian

One of two virtues Doug Melvin actively seeks in ballplayers: 1) former Texas Ranger 2) Canadian.

08 Jack Zduriencik

This point along with point #1 are the most important. Often front office personnel move from team to team, deals are struck with those you are familiar with, and by all accounts Melvin and Zduriencik are on friendly terms. Zduriencik would be imminently familiar with the players available in the Brewers organization, so a deal could be done quickly. And don't think favoritism and sentimentality don't play a part in this, remember how many former Rangers have passed through the Brewers since Melvin has been at the helm.

A similar post could also be made about Peavy being a better pick up for the Brewers, but the stars have aligned pretty well for a Bedard move. Time will tell.

Hoffman Drill Down

I'm sick of reading about Peavy being a perfect match for the Brewers (I happen to think this guy is a more likely pick up), so I decided to check something out on his former teammate, Trevor Hoffman.

Even though there isn't anything to complain about, I was becoming skeptical of Hoffman's superb start. He can't be this dominate, can he? I recall complaints of the previous three closers (Cordero, Turnbow, Torres) that they only faced the meatless part of the lineup (hitters 7-8-9 and thereabouts). I looked into Hoffman, and here are the first three hitters he's faced in his 12 appearances:

4-5-6
9-1-2
2-3-4
4-5-6
1-2-3
4-5-6
6-7-8
2-3-4
4-5-6
5-6-7
8-9-1
7-8-9

Hoffman has faced the 3-4-5 lineup hitters 14 times within the first three batters he's faced. Does this mean anything? Not really, it just proves that he's not stealing the save from the pitcher who did face the tougher outs.

I am concerned that Hoffman is facing hackers, and lesser quality hackers like those on Houston, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Florida. The minute hitters begin taking some of Hoffman's pitches is the time we will see him give up runs and blowing saves.

The Most Important Stat

Away record: 13-7

Playoff teams typically win two of three at home and are .500 on the road (which is about 94 wins). The current pace is unsustainable, but whatever mental roadblock the team once had appears to be taken care of.

Trivium

Career hits:

2,001 Jason Kendall (6856 AB, debut 4/1/96)
2,000 Todd Helton (6090 AB, debut 8/2/97)

Twitterrhea

Keywords: Happy Youngster

* Gnomishtank Blogger and ballhawk The Happy Youngster gets dissed by prima donna rookie for wanting 2 bats for 1st HR ball.Good read. http://bit.ly/IkWf1

* millerparkdrunk i didnt realize how much i hated the happy youngster til i started writing about him. holy cow

* timstrack Happy Youngster take it easy on the opposing team when you are negotiating those home run balls at Miller Park..the Marlin fans are po'ed..

* genemueller @dlabay Happy Youngster sounds like Grumpy Opportunist. The team could've avoided it all by giving him the bats. Neither side looks good


I can see points on both sides, both as the guy is loser and that he was a savvy capitalist holding something of value and trying to get the most out of it. However, protocol in foul ball/home runs is well established:

1. Throw it back
2. If old, give it to a kid
3. If old and alone, keep it

I had the misfortune of listening to Charlie Sykes talking to the guy while he put his best victim crocodile tears late this morning, but it wasn't working. What's he going to do with the 50+ home run balls he threw elbows trying to get at?

I only have one baseball from a game ... a Jose Hernandez batting practice foul ball. You get a lower-class baseball like that if you tried.

One Year Ago…

The Brewers have been playing very well of late that it's getting to the point that it's unsustainable. They're due for a bad stretch soon (especially since they'll be facing better quality teams), so I'm going to wax nostalgic about this point a year ago (cherry picking alert!):

W-L
2009 21-14, 177 runs scored, 151 allowed
2008 17-18, 150 runs scored, 171 allowed

Team Batting
2009 .259 BA, .351 OBP, .445 SLG, 47 HR
2008 .240 BA, .316 OBP, .379 SLG, 31 HR

Team Pitching
2009 4.11 ERA, 253 K, 125 BB, 38 HR allowed
2008 4.63 ERA, 243 K, 145 BB, 44 HR allowed

Rickie Weeks
2009 .886 OPS, 9 HR, 2 SB, 6 E
2008 .681 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB, ? E

Ryan Braun
2009 1.017 OPS, 20 BB
2008 .769 OPS, 7 BB

Prince Fielder
2009 .954 OPS, 8 HR, 38 K
2008 .776 OPS, 4 HR, 20 K

Jason Kendall
2009 .598 OPS, 4 XBH
2008 .745 OPS, 10 XBH

Jeff Suppan
2009 37.2 INN, 5.50 ERA, .871 OPS against
2008 39.2 INN, 5.22 ERA, .854 OPS against

Coincidentally, in 2008 the Brewers had just started a series against St. Louis after being swept in Florida by the Marlins. I hope 2009 isn't the bizarro 2008 Brewers where everything is opposite.

All stats culled from Baseball Reference, I'm too lazy for the other sites tonight.

Rainy Night at the Steel Umbrella

Games like this make me feel like we're cheating Mother Nature. What a fun night to attend a ballgame.

Weeks! He could get a cycle tonight.

Thom Brenneman

... Is not hiding his displeasure of Bronson Arroyo tonight. If I were a player, I'd meet that pipsqueek announcer in the parking lot.

Great Success for Suppan

W, 5.2 IN, 5 H, 3 ER

ERA now stands at 5.68 ... almost to the 4.50 benchmark. In his last four starts, Suppan has pitched 24 innings of 3.37 ERA baseball, plus the team has won all four games. There still is cause for concern, but Suppan's "Adequate to Awful" ratio stands at 2-to-1, a ratio I am pleased with.

I feel bad for the Pirates. Almost.

Random Weekend Thoughts

• I think John Kruk in the control room is the most unintentionally hilarious moment Baseball Tonight could have done.
  
• Despite stealing six bases and single handedly winning two fantasy games of mine, Carl Crawford did little to help his real live team. The longer I watch and learn about baseball, the more I believe that stolen bases are only worthwhile when it's a late inning situation or if a slow runner is at the plate. All other times, it's masturbation or stat padding.
  
• The Brewers music man took it to heart when Hoffmann said "Hells Bells" was too quiet. It was deafening today at Miller Park.
  
• Today was the first open roof day at the park, and I still stand by my proclamation that Miller Park is the best ballpark when said roof is said open.
  
• Unintentional troika of former Brewers in this post. I hope LaPorta does well, and when I mean well, I mean Pat Burrell well.
  
• I'm very concerned about Braun's injury, it could sink or swim the season,.
  
• My modest benchmark for a playoff-bound team is .500 on the road, .667 at home, which is about 95 wins. The Brewers are on pace for the 83 wins I predicted them to be at, but if the starting pitching continue at its current pace and if the hitters turn it on, it could be a fun year.
  
• The Braun bobblehead is very cool, even though I did not win the 1 in 43 chance of a speaking bobblehead.
  
• Did you know that suite holders get an additional bobblehead? It's true. I should have known this years ago with my voluminous amount of mini Junior Spivey bobbleheads, but today confirmed it.
  
• Brewers are now 5-5 in one run ballgames, right where they should be. Coin flip, dudes.
  
• I had seats behind the visitor's dugout Friday night, so I didn't get a look at the clearly foul ball Tony Clark hit to put the Brewers away. I'm surprised Macha didn't put up much of a fight because he had a similar look at the ball that the horrible umpire did. That inning was nothing but bad luck with the dribbler, "fair ball," and fister to center, so I'll remember that one if the Brewers end up on the outside of a playoff berth by one game.
  
• I wish Lawrie stuck with catching.

Fair or Foul?