Schroeder's Words of Wisdom

4/28/09

"Top of the order having a pretty good day. I mean, those three guys at the top of the order have been on every single time just about, except for Rickie. Rickie's been out a couple of times, but the other two have been on base."

Random Weekend Thoughts

• I had fully intended flipping around to various games after the Brewers game last night, but was thoroughly exhausted and ultimately pleased with the game. Today was rough, but a road series win is perfectly acceptable to me.
  
• I don't want to consistently rag on Suppan, so even though he didn't get a "quality start" last night, I thought his pitching was acceptable. My expectation out of Suppan is that 2/3 of his starts would be ones like today or "quality starts" with the remaining 1/3 be dogs … I'm fine with that out of a #5 starter.
  
• Weeks for CF 2010!
  
• Cameron has been on a warpath … first the pitcher he nailed, then Quintero, and yesterday a few hard slides. This makes me uneasy as whenever he approaches another human being because I still have visions of him diving headfirst into one.
  
• Oh ESPN, what will I do without you? Wow, you're broadcasting in Boston of all places and doing it in trainwreck fashion. How novel!
  
• I will miss the MLB Network, not so much for the games (which I can get on MLB.tv), but for the highlight programs and whatnot. I was a good four months.
  
• This will be strange not having a summer where I'm glued to the television watching Brewers games all the time, harkening back to the good old days when I listened to Ueck every night. Sure, the occaisional game will be on WMLW and I'll certainly watch them at eateries and bars, but that is only a drop in the Brewers bucket.
  
• Unless I figure out how to hop onto a proxy and stream Brewers games via MLB.tv. It appears unfair that I would have to purchase cable in order to watch 95% of the team's games, but if I buy an exclusive online baseball package I cannot watch any Brewers games at all (unless they are archived, but what fun is that?). I know MLB wants you to attend games, of which I do, but that's been their argument for 60 years and it hasn't negatively affected the turnstiles.
  
• I wish MLB Fastcast would show highlights of other on-field events besides exclusively homeruns.
  
• While listening to Jon Miller broadcast Giants games, I get the feeling that he dumbs down his thoughts on Sunday Night Baseball. I guess it's all about the company you keep.
  
• Yes, but if and only if Gamel can cap his seasonal errors at 20. Fielder isn't going anywhere and Hall isn't going back to the outfield.
  
• A ham sandwich would have been too much, I guess.

Question Resolved

Tonight's game is finally in HD ... just on the weekend we decide to give up cable, too!

According to this list they're on schedule for the HD broadcasts. Still, I wonder why it took them so long to lug the HD equipment to games. Is this a technology issue? Quality issue? Cost issue? Bandwidth issue with the HD component of FSN (which is 95% of the time on a test pattern)? Seems strange, that's all.

Twitterrhea

Twitter is good for two things…

1.    Being silly.
2.    A search engine for inane comments.

Here are five of the latter, keyword: BREWERS.

timedoctor poor brewers, can't seem to stop throwing their balls.

Shadow_Ferret Mercifully, the rains came. With luck, they'll just call the game and put the Brewers out of my misery. #firemacha

WIEric Wondering why the Milwaukee Brewers pay these pitchers. Maybe we should pay them to pitch for other teams. Then we could get some hits.

tsherman01 What the Snap is up with the Brewers???? Same players..... New manager...... Hmmmmmmmm!

Wosick8 Watching the Brewers get spanked and thinking about making a hot dog

Great Success for Suppan

W: 6+ IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

8.56 ERA (Less than Turnbow!)

With a more direct approach and a faster pace, Suppan looked much better today. This is the Suppan we've come to know in August each year ... maybe a nationally televised shaming helped.

I am tempered with this performance because a lot of the outs were hammered directly the fielders. We shall see if it's a trend next time out.

Random Weekend Thoughts

• I don't blame Rickie Weeks for the loss yesterday, I blame Fielder's nancy boy throw to first.
  
• The odds of winning a one-run game is about 50/50, so the Brewers (1-4) have been unlucky thus far. Over the course of a season it will even out … if two more of the one run games would have went in the Brewers' favor, they'd have a 5-6 record. I think they'll turn out alright.
  
• Whoops.
  
• On a related note, I think the Brewers are the only MLB team that doesn't feature the city name on their road unis. Baltimore switched this past season.
  
• There's definitely a pricing issue here, but why would someone spend $900 to sit in the cold? That extra variable is a big one when considering the investment. I think when summer rolls along the seats will fill up and the Yankees will use the extra cash to spend on a miserable failure of a baseball team.
  
• What's with CitiField not being sold out? I find this strange.
  
• I want to believe in Suppan today, but the Mets are hammering the ball right at fielders. I don't think this will end well.
  
• The MLB app for my iPhone is kickin' and I'm impressed with MLB.tv so far. One day I'll muster up the strength to post an omnibus "feelings" post about the two.
  
• Between the Brewers games, TBS, FOX, ESPN, and now MLB Network games, I almost decided that I didn't need to purchase MLB.tv. However, my finicky side and desire to watch whatever I wanted to watch overruled those thoughts.
  
• Uecker totally wants to call Provus "Jim." I know it.
  
• Bill Schroeder obviously did no show prep this offseason.
  
• Announcers rely on the "game notes" compiled by the media relations team and, for the most part, it's sufficient. Game notes are for simpletons, thought, and I've come to the realization that I'm watching a different game than most.
  
• Good site: Hit Tracker
  
• Bill Hall is playing well in the field, I'll give him that.
  
• Corey Hart with a beard looks like Yovani Gallardo.

Question

Why haven't any of the FS Wisconsin broadcasts been in hi-def yet?

Standings

4 - Hot Dog
0 - Brat
0 - Polish
0 - Italian
0 - Chorizo

I think it's a trend.

One day I will lay waste to the Hot Dog as an illigitimate running meat fraud (it is an expansion wiener), but I will save it until after tax season dies down.

Perspective

You can't just abrogate contracts, people.

Cot's Baseball Contracts:

* 4 years/$42M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option

* signed as a free agent 12/06

* $1M signing bonus

- 07:$6M
- 08:$8M
- 09:$12.5M
- 10:$12.5M
- 11:$12.75M club option ($2M buyout)

* full no-trade clause, 2007-08

* limited no-trade clause, 2009-10 (may block deals to 8 clubs each year)

* award bonuses: $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.4M for 2nd, $0.3M for 3rd, $0.2M for 4th, $0.1M for 5th); $0.25M for MVP ($0.1M for 2nd, $75,000 for 3rd); $0.1M for All Star starting pitcher ($50,000 for A-S selection); $0.1M for WS MVP; $50,000 each for Silver Slugger, Gold Glove or AP, BA, TSN, BW, USA Today All Star

* $0.3M assignment bonus for each trade

* perks: use of suite at Brewers home games

* Suppan to donate $0.1M annually to club charity

Suppan is getting at least $27mm from someone, and right now the Brewers are the ones stuck. Cutting him would be stupid as no team would be foolish enough to sign him while he's on waivers ... they'd snap him up for the league minimum and allow the Brewers to pay the remaining $26.5mm.

Tough Day for Suppan #2

3 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 BB

12.91 ERA (down from 13.50)

Cubs suck

That phrase is just a populist rallying cry I wish not to partake in. Using that as your mantra is as effective as yelling at yourself by way of a mirror.

The Cubs do not "suck" per se, but a significant part of their fanbase is loathesome.

Tough Day for Suppan #1

4 IP, 6 R (all earned), 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K

Current ERA: 13.50

2009 Brewers Guesstimates

Thanks to MLB At Bat for my iPhone, I reached an event horizon for personal multitasking. After getting him from a long day at the grain elevator, the app kept me abreast of the goings on in the majors and my fantasy squads, did two loads of laundry, worked out, took out the trash, finally listened to the new Nick Cave, and a myriad of other quantum mundane events I won't bore you with. It was crazy, I was very close to seeing forever.

I'll only share how I see the next few months, however, for the only numbers anyone cares about:

Team Wins
83, second place, no playoffs

Attendance
2.7mm

Homers
Braun 32
Fielder 38
Kendall 3

Errors
Braun 3
Weeks 16

Stolen Bases
Hart 26
Weeks 25

Ground Outs
Kendall 148 (168 last year)

Strikeouts (batters)
Hall 143

Strikeouts (pitchers)
Gallardo 159

Innings Pitched
Gallardo 165
Suppan 182
Bush 210
Looper 177
Parra 160

Saves
Hoffmann 23
Villanueva 6

Peavy Trade?
Nope

Prospect Arrival
Gamel (July)
Escobar (September)

Non-Prospect Arrival
Gwynn (September)

As I've consistently believed since the end of last season, 2009 is going to be a small step back for the Brewers. They lost a significant amount of innings in the starting rotation, so they're going to have to rely on the bullpen to throw more, thus getting worn down and a mess by July. The offense has been underwhelming for a few seasons and they could theoretically break out and be that offensive powerhouse many inherently think the team is.

I think this is still going to be a fun team to watch because the core – Hardy, Hart, Braun, Fielder, Weeks – have another season of experience and are still approaching their statistical career seasons. They'll play better defense and hopefully not look so silly at the plate, perhaps take a few more walks, and whatever. I like the core, I still enjoy watching each of their at bats (except Hart, he has some work to do after his September performance).

As far as management, I expect it to be a quiet year for Melvin and the Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. The team needs a stellar starter for 2010-2012 while the aforementioned core players are still under team control. Melvin doesn't have any chips to deal until the offseason when Escobar should be seriously pushing either Hardy or Weeks into a new position or out of the organization. I can see Cameron being dealt, but whatever he would net in return is not what the Brewers need.

Bring it on.

Too Big to Fail #1: Ryan Braun

Finally, the last of a weeklong look at the eight players I believe are key to the success of the 2009 Brewers. Should any of them significantly deviate from their expected output, it will be a long season. I guarantee it.

It's hard for me to contain my love of Ryan Braun, I simply think he's the greatest player to don a Brewers' uniform in my post-1989 fandom life. What's there not to like about Braun? He always hits, he effortlessly says clichéd quote after clichéd quote, takes an active leadership role, very marketable, changes positions because management asks him to, actually enjoys playing for his country, has an adequate amount of confidence that's not off-putting (except to Cardinals fans), and signed a long-term contract at below market value. He is the straw and the drink that is stirred and shaken … as he goes, so goes the Brewers.

If Braun had been fully healthy after August 9^th, the team would have easily made the playoffs instead of limping in. That's a testament to the offense he continually brings to the team, and entering his age 25 season he should have at least incremental improvement in those numbers for the next three seasons. Added to it that he should be markedly improved in the field this year, his all around moxie is desperately needed for the team. Here are various predictions for his output in 2009:

PECOTA
.295 AVG, .361 OBP, .558 SLG, 37 HR
CHONE
.294 AVG, .351 OBP, .556 SLG, 32 HR (132 games)
MARCEL
.384 OBP, 32 HR

I don't know why CHONE has him playing in only 132 games, but his aggravation of the rip injury as well as the thumb contusion are of modest concern. Braun swings all out on each pitch, so anything impeding such violent hacks will hurt his power game and the lofty expectations.

I'm not too concerned about Braun faltering below these expected numbers in his third season in the majors, he seems to have the right mix of virtually every ballplayer virtue outlined in the not-italicized opening paragraph. However, I am concerned about the recent talk of Braun hoping to take more pitches … it seems in contract to his game. One of my rash generalizations about ballplayers (from reading Moneyball years ago), is to not mess with what brought the hitters success. My theory relies upon whether the change was instigated by management or by the player … if by the player, it's probably a less risky proposition. If by management it spells trouble.

Worries, bah! Braun should do fine and I hope he doesn't get injured because there is little pointing toward an offensive collapse for my burgeoning bromance.

Photo credit: Tom Lynn/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #3: JJ Hardy

You know what, this was the greatest post in the history of this fledgling blog. Somehow it was deleted and now I refuse to re-write the genius of the moment. This is only a tribute.

Better Get Used to This

The meme for the season will be "Tough day for Suppan."

Too Big to Fail #2: Yovani Gallardo

Some people do laundry Saturday nights, some people watch basketball, yet others wax ecstatic about the Brewers upcoming season. One particular homebody does them all with the seventh installment of the eight men destined to lead the Brewers to an 83-win year. Should any of these guys regress or not provide any semblance of resemblance to their predicted numbers, it's going to be a long, fruitless season.

Yovani Gallardo is one of a kind and I don't think he's far underappreciated in Brewers lore. Sure, the injury last year didn't help (and neither did the incessant replays of him jumping over Reed Johnson and having his knee bent backwards ad nauseum), but he's done something very few individuals have ever done in the Brewers organization: a hotshot arm escaping the minors to the majors in tact. That, in itself, is worthy of heaping praise.

Gallardo is anointed as the Brewers' real #1 starter and I sure hope as hell he performs like one. I'm not concerned about his performance however, but I am concerned about the amount of innings he may or may not accumulate. He's entering his age 23 season after a year of almost constant rehab, so any jump will be significant. In 2007 his pitched almost 200 innings, so I know he has it in him … but the almost year layoff is troubling. Here are the predications for '09:

PECOTA
115 IP (21 GS), 111 K, 3.90 ERA
CHONE
108 IP (19 GS), 112 K, 3.50 ERA
MARCEL
79 IP, 70 K, 3.59 ERA

These numbers are not relevant to my interests, hopes, and dreams. It's probably a good idea to shutter Gallardo's innings to a point, but the predictions show Gallardo going on the DL for at least two months. Aside from his knee injury, Gallardo has been durable and consistent throughout his career, so I am cautiously optimistic the man will make it to 150 innings in 2009 (with 180 a possibility). Long term, it is best for Gallardo to be limited … maybe have Villanueva the designated reliever to go another three innings after Gallardo leaves after five? Maybe.

Gallardo is a key component to the team and is the best starter to come out of the organization since Sheets (of whom he is technically replacing in the rotation, even though Sheets hasn't been all that great for four years). I hope Reed Johnson has the good sense not to slide into first base ever again.

Photo credit: Jeff Lewis/AP/LA Times

Too Big to Fail #4: Corey Hart

Any number of worries can consume people these days, be it the dire economy or a fussy quarterback who singlehandedly ruined a keeper league off season strategy AND your real hometown team's season. Of course, I worry only about baseball, namely the stars of my hometown baseball team, the Brewers. These guys get overlooked because other fans are accustomed to their stable numbers, but this week I've been rambling incoherently for my own pleasure on the eight who are key to the season.

Corey Hart had a miserable finish to the season. Whether it was an injury, fatigue, or an evaporated sense of concentration, Hart was flailing at every pitch and missing by a mile starting September 6^th. The 2008 All-Star finished the season only 13 times in his 83 plate appearances … an absolutely dreadful .159 OBP that would make Paul Bako feel bad.

We all know Hart isn't that bad, plus we aren't naïve enough to think he's suddenly going to be a walk machine. Hart is just one of those guys who cannot be patient at the plate, he's always going to swing. Despite his inability to draw one, Hart compensates with a short, quick swing that should be good for a solid .270-.280 BA the rest of his career. The number crunchers predict that…

PECOTA
.289 AVG, .343 OBP, .494 SLG, 23 HR
CHONE
.278 AVG, .335 OBP, .479 SLG, 19 HR
MARCEL
.345 OBP, 20 HR

PECOTA has loved Hart for a while, and so do many others and not just because of his name. He has the tools to be a solid player and as long as he avoids terrible funks like the September 2008, he should be counted on for these numbers and shouldn't be too much of a worry to fail. His average and glove can be replaced easy, but since there is no LaPorta in the system, Hart's modest power is needed.

A Joe Carter-esque career awaits.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #5: Manny Parra

Next week Sunday begins anew the 2009 Brewers campaign and while others may worry about which sausage wins the most, I am more concerned about the core eight players on the roster. Should any one of these eight players falter, so will the already slim wild card hopes. The elite eight campaign continues today with Manny Parra.

Nowadays it's easy to fall into the trap thinking that Manny Parra is a young rookie who came through for the team in his first full major league system. However, Parra is entering only his age 26 season, the same age as JJ Hardy and Rickie Weeks are for the upcoming campaign, and still older than Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo, and Prince Fielder. Compared to the young core, Parra is an old man, but we're still going to treat him as the new kid in town because of his track record.

Yes, a mere season ago, all Brewers fans were ready to lump Parra in the company of Neugebauer, Jones, Jackson, D'Amico, Quevedo and ilk in the mounting heap of failed Brewers pitching prospects of the past 17 years. Then something strange happened … Parra threw a no-hitter, stayed with the club out of camp, and posted a solid 2008. Yes, he did tire down the stretch, but as long as he avoids a complete melt down, he'll have a spot in the Brewers' rotation as the lone southpaw for decades to come. Decades!

Of the eight players on my hodgepodge of a list, he is the one I am most concerned about failing. Here are the core predictions:

PECOTA
136 IP, 111 K, 1.45 WHIP, 4.40 ERA
CHONE
124 IP, 104 K, 1.44 WHIP, 4.21 ERA
MARCEL
139 IP, 121 K, 1.46 WHIP, 4.27 ERA

Even though he easily threw 166 innings last season, all of the standard bearers think Parra is due for at least a 30 inning drop. Why? His ample injury history which is represented well in his minor league statistics. His WHIP and ERA are generally stable, so he's deserving of a spot on the major league roster, but even though he looks like a healthy young man, he's only thrown over 100 innings in a season twice before the sudden jump last year in the majors.

An increase as significant as that leads one to conclude he may be due for another injury, but who knows? Maybe he's turned a corner and will continue to pitch adequately enough in the majors to reach his #2 starter potential we've heard about so many years. Obviously this is what I hope happens in 2009 because the Brewers are going to need him to consistently take the ball because the options beyond him are terrible (Looper's issues causing even more concern).

Plus, he wears his socks like a champ.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline