Too Big to Fail #6: Prince Fielder

While others fawn over the last guy in the bullpen or the marvel that is Casey McGehee (and the eventual fall in the regular season), the key to the 2009 Brewers is not the role players, but the big guys, the elite eight if you will. Without expected seasons out of any of these guys, the Brewers' already slim hopes of making the playoffs grow significantly dim. Fielder is sixth on my list to countdown to the start of the regular season.

Prince Fielder went from plucky HOF-possible youngster to borderline pariah after he hit his 50^th home run September 25^th, 2007. After the game he went off on his erstwhile dad, which changed many opinions about the big guy. Those opinions changed further in the spring training 2008 with a contract dispute with the team that went public and his abrupt switch to "greens only." Suddenly visions of Gary Sheffield were appearing in my nightmares, a cantankerous first baseman who's lipping off about whatever and wouldn't be the purported team leader the announcers would so desperately want you to believe. An early season home run drought didn't help things.

Then a funny thing happened, Fielder reverted to the lumbering snuggle bear fans came to know about him and posted a modest season. Sure, it didn't match the 50 homers of 2007 (which irritated casuals), but it was still a good enough season to warrant a 128 OPS and just shy of 300 total bases in his third full season. Hard to believe, but Fielder still has two more seasons before the optimal career year age of 27, and the predictive numbers show an incremental improvement:

PECOTA
.288 AVG, .378 OBP, .542 SLG, 33 HR
CHONE
.286 AVG, .388 OBP, .555 SLG, 36 HR
MARCEL
.382 OBP, 32 HR

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Fielder will reach 40 homers given that he's signed a modest contract and has a year of being vegetarian under his belt. However, if he falters or gets injured, he opens a gaping hole in the lineup that forces pitchers to not give Braun anything to hit … because we all know he's going to swing at everything. Brad Nelson can only rake so much.

Since Fielder hits for a solid average and does take a walk now and then, I don't foresee any significant backtracking unless he hurts a knee. He has come to camp in shape which, after ballooning with the new diet last season, is a welcome sign. I've read in the past that he knows that he can have very special career and is always looking for an edge, and it seems that this particular factoid is the truth.

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Too Big to Fail #7: Rickie Weeks

This is the second of a series of eight profiles of players whom I believe will play a huge part in the 2009 campaign. Should one of these elite eight fail, the Brewers are probably out of the running for a playoff spot. While others focus on the scrubs rounding out the roster or the bullpen, I think the star players on the roster aren't properly recognized for what they are: gangsta.

If there ever was a player being hated on unnecessarily, it would be Rickie Weeks. Perhaps he's wilting under the crushing weight of expectations, but the poor guy has done nothing but post slightly below average numbers. Sure, he looks ugly doing so with ample strikeouts and errors (which have subsided as he ages), but at least he's a consistent mediocre.

Of course, with not meeting expectations, Weeks is now being pressured to perform entering his age 26 season. He's under team control through 2011, but with the presence of Escobar in the minors and Hardy entrenched at shortstop, he could be, and should be, feeling the heat. Weeks is OK, but he could be oh so much better… if he doesn't come through this season, I don't think he ever will. Here are his predictions:

PECOTA
.269 AVG, .373 OBP, .442 SLG, 17 HR, 20 SB
CHONE
.343 OBP, 14 HR, 20 SB
MARCEL
.257 AVG, .368 OBP, .431 SLG, 16 HR, 21 SB

Not too bad, but the average is disappointing. I think we as Brewers fans expect about 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, and a .280 average out of Weeks, if not more. I still think there's a possibility of a breakout season, but that glimmer of hope fades with each passing year.

The high strikeouts and the low average draw the ire of casuals, but I recognize the worth Weeks brings to the team. I think if he continues his underperforming ways, the Brewers are either going to trade him this fall to make room for Escobar (which I don't think should happen), or train him to become a center fielder where another player with the same low average, high strikeout stigma has forged a pretty good career (Mike Cameron).

Photo credit: AP/JSOnline

Deep Thought

I would love to be known as a "Fantasy Expert."

Too Big to Fail #8: Dave Bush

Today begins a week-long series of ramblings on the eight most important Brewers of the 2009 season. Without the significant efforts of these individuals performing near their career norms, I believe the Brewers will have no shot at the post season. Of course, an outstanding season by any of these Elite Eight could boost the Brewers back to 90 wins. While most waste their time on fretting about the bullpen and the 25^th man on the roster, I'll focus on the important guys because they're often taken for granted.

I've always liked Dave Bush and his varying looks: balding, shaved bald, Kornheiser, goatee, now bald with a beard. Seeking Bush's look is much like awaiting the first robin of spring. Bush is always there, rarely spectacular, but you can count on him to take the ball every so often and give his even if it means blowing up in the fifth or sixth inning. He certainly moves in unmysterious ways. Plus since the team got him from the Blue Jays, I've always thought he was Canadian, which would make him untrustworthy.

Bush arrived from Milwaukee in the Lyle Overbay trade a few season ago and I never thought of him as the key part of the deal. If you recall, the Brewers also received pitching prospect Zach Jackson and spare outfielder Gabe Gross. Bush was supposed to be filler, an adequate fourth/fifth starter awaiting to be replaced by Jackson. Jackson, however, realized that his stirrups couldn't hide his 85 MPH fastball down the middle of the plate.

Entering his fourth year with the Brewers, Bush has accumulated three solid seasons, two slightly above average and one below average. Was anything more expected of him? No, I don't think so. Apparently on this year's squad he is the fifth starter even though he is clearly the third best starter on the team. He's entering his age 29 season and all signs point to him to continue putting up his standard numbers. Here are what the projections think about Dave Bush:

PECOTA
145 IP, 95 K, 4.27 ERA
CHONE
180 IP, 120 K, 4.30 ERA
MARCEL
169 IP, 118 K, 4.29 ERA

Alright, those seem reasonable. PECOTA predicts that Bush will probably spend some time in the bullpen, but those are generally in line with his career norms. Bush hasn't pitched fewer than 185 innings in his time with the Brewers and it seems that he's durable enough to put up similar numbers this year.

We've watched Bush over the years and know his game: "wild in the zone," few walks, many singles, lots of homers, ample stirrups, good athlete, etc. He is what he is, a slightly above average pitcher which makes him a good #3 or #4 starter in the league (unless he plays for Baltimore, in that case he's their number one). Fans gripe about his inability to get beyond the fifth and sixth innings, but if he's giving you that many solid innings and keeping you in the game, why get greedy?

What has bothered me about Bush all these years is that his few walks make his peripherals look better than they ought to be. Specifically his K/BB ratio lead many to draft him in the later rounds as a "sleeper" in fantasy leagues that past two seasons. Obviously this still could happen as he's had enough time under his belt and is entering his prime, that would certainly benefit the Brewers in 2009 when they need as many starting pitches to step up as much as possible.

If Bush fails, the Brewers don't have an adequate backup plan to eat his innings. McClung would probably be called upon to take his spot in the rotation, but he'll throw even fewer innings in his place and the bullpen will lose another long inning arm (we all know Villanueva can only go once through the order before he gets shelled). If Bush reverts to his 2007 form, the Brewers may not crack 81 wins.

I would like nothing more than Bush to pitch nondescriptly every fifth day this season and pitch adequately. There is a possibility of a breakthrough season, but if given the 2008 Bush stats, even with his faults, I'd be pleased.

Photo Credit: AP/JSOnline

Suppose Suppan…

… actually pitches a nice game once in a while? You're already under the assumption that the Brewers are going to lose that day unless they score six runs, but on this day he's cruising through six innings. The opposing #1 starter could have an off day (how many times have you seen the Brewers lay one on Randy Johnson in his prime?).

I do not think Suppan as the opening day starter is a terrible strategy and it gives me more confidence in Macha after fretting about the whole Kendall-batting-leadoff situation. This is out of the box thinking and it may pick up a win or two down the road (if Suppan returns to his mediocre form).

Earl Weaver, one of the best out of the box thinking managers of all time, used to field his "B" lineup in the first game of a double header, essentially hoping to get lucky against the opposition's first stringers. I think this is what Macha has in mind when it comes to the rotation … maybe Suppan pitches a decent game every once in a while and the team gets lucky, then the significantly better and more consistent members of the rotation face inferior opposition starters.

This is a true playing the percentages move by management and I applaud them for trying this. It may be torture at times since Suppan will probably be the sixth best starter to break camp, but in a Wild Card race when each game matters, in the long run this could pan out.

Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

Macha considering Kendall at leadoff.

No. I thought Macha would be better than this. There is a voluminous amount of data to support Kendall not batting at all, let alone first in the lineup. Kendall is around for his veteran presence and defensive ability, not his weak grounders to second base.

I am of the opinion that the batting order matters little, but giving the worst batter the most at bats seems counter-productive. Macha says "What he does is almost every at-bat is a seven-pitch at-bat." Let's roll the tape:

Pitches Per Plate Appearance 2008:
4.14 Rickie Weeks
3.63 Jason Kendall

So it appears that Macha's quote was not well researched.

If this gets printed in the JS tomorrow without some sort of statistical evidence beyond Kendall's career counting stats, I'm going to write a sternly worded letter to Haudricourt.

30 Clubs in 30 Days

The MLB Network program airing today features the Brewers, but only caught wind of it for the last five minutes. They were making predictions and surprisingly cited BP's, but then threw it over to former CLE GM John Hart who said the Brea Crew would finish ... Fourth.

Fourth! Third is plausible, but fourth? This is an obomination and demand his full argument. No way Dusty Baker wills the Reds ahead of the Brewers.

Weeks Apparently a Poor Fielder

…or so says Bill James in his Fielding Bible.

Rob Neyer brought this up today about the supposed unique opportunity that is presented to the Brewers, but I don't agree with his thoughts. I don't get into the fielding aspect of the game too much because there isn't a metric as close to, say, OPS or K/IP that can be pointed to for prowess in the field. I think that any real fielding metric will have to incorporate a heavy duty physics formula because of the various dimensions, but that's for another day.

Neyer suggests that Braun is a poor left fielder, but I think he did adequate in his first season in left field. He does have that Soriano "look like you don't know what you're doing, but make the play and throw out the overconfident runner" thing going on, but recent evidence shows he was barely below average in left. And moving him to first would be dumb anyway because slugging first basemen are largely fungible (plus Prince is going to be around for a few more seasons).

Escobar isn't going to pay second, so that leaves it up to the Brewers to push Hardy over there. Hardy, however, isn't signed long term and it would behoove him to ruin his value on the market … a slugging second baseman is a luxury, but a slugging shortstop is even more so.

Lastly to refute Neyer's suggestion is that the Brewers just committed to Brett Lawrie as a second baseman and, by all accounts, will move through the system rapidly should he hit well. So ETA is probably three seasons, which is the time remaining that Weeks is under Brewers' control. Obviously this is a longer-term outlook and the viability of prospects is always in question.

Where does that leave us? I haven't read James' Fielding Bible and I have no doubts that Weeks is poor in the field, but from watching his career I can confidently say these few points about his ability on the diamond:

1.    The more time he has to field, he greater the probability it is he will commit an error
2.    He turns double plays fine
3.    He tends to throw the ball low to first base with the plays being exacerbated by having Fielder manning the bag
4.    He has trouble with grounders, but flies (and going back on pop ups) he does well

That's Weeks in a nutshell, but he hits (or gets on base) a lot better than their other options. His value is with the bat and I hope he blooms this season a la Brandon Phillips at about this age.

In '06 and '07 there was talk about moving Weeks to the outfield, so if the Brewers are serious about moving Weeks, they should lay the groundwork for putting him in CF. Obviously the experience worked (somewhat) by moving another athletic infielder with issues out there in '07, but with the impending departure of Cameron after '09 does open an opportunity for the Brewers to do so.

If Weeks raises his average or hits for more power, I think the Brewers should strongly consider moving him to CF at the beginning of '10. There is a precedent of moving good hit/poor field 2B to the outfield (see Mark McLemore comes to mind), so this wouldn't be a new thing. This leaves a gaping hole at 2B, but it keeps Weeks and suppresses the dearth of OF sluggers in the system (Cole Gillespie not withstanding). Hardy to 3^rd/San Francisco Giants?

Just sayin'.

Quotable

The dangerous and emblematic Ichiro, who had already failed on three occasions, hit a single.

• Fidel Castro
  

Easily a frontrunner as my favorite baseball related quote of the year. One day I'll rant about the Brewers again, one day … soon.

Travesty!

Those of you glued to FSN Wisconsin have come to know and loathe Jerry Garcia, the Piggly Wiggly commercial chef with the unfortunate name. He's in the news today as he moves to Hotel Metro from … whereabouts unknown (here?).

I think Piggly Wiggly, my former employer of years ago, should get residuals because, outside of foodies, few knew of the man before he started dishing random sausage dressing recipes for 60 seconds at a time during game telecasts. I never paid attention to the commercials, let alone write down a recipe so as to later do this "cook" thing I've been hearing about all my life. But I knew they were one, with that Pavlovian theme song and the amenable mug of the adoringly not-Dead Head Jerry Garcia.

He's haunted me, for sure.

Helpful Tip

The MLB Network needs to hire an editor for their crawls … waaaaay too much text.

Biding My Time For Real Games

I'm going to let the phenomena known as the Casey McGehee Experience play itself out before I write anything prophetic. There isn't too much exciting going on in Brewers land that's irritating me too much, so all I'm doing right now is preparing for multiple fantasy baseball drafts. Did you know there's something going on with A-Rod? Who knew!

I will pass along this article from Seamheads posted today: Almost An International Incident in Milwaukee. The story speaks for itself and it informs me about a team called the "Milwaukee Red Sox" that I've never heard of, so they join the Milwaukee Bears, original Milwaukee Brewers, and the minor league Brewers as the forgotten pro teams for the city. In any case, it's a little bit of history I didn't know about and I appreciate the folks at Seamheads for bringing it to light.

These Red Sox must have played alongside the minor league Brewers at old Borchert Field, which was probably the stadium du jour for any team back in the day. I ride my bike in the vicinity where the stadium used to be and have been meaning to take photos of the sights and whatever may be left of the first pro baseball stadium in the city. Unfortunately, most of it is part of I-43 and a patchwork of asphalt, so retracing the corners will be tough. However, it sounds like an amusing treasure hunt for me to do this summer if it ever gets warm.

Deep Thought 2

If Witrado continues doing stand-ups with his back turned to the plate, he's going to get wrapped on the back of the head by a bat or a ball. Just saying don't be surprised if it happens (even in BP), this is the first thing they teach you in sports journalism school.

Trot Nixon? Center field?

It's more likely than you think.

If the current trend continues, grit will increase ten-fold.

Blind Singers Earn Double

I promised myself to sit down the past week and write a prophetic tome about Tony Gwynn and his future with the Brewers, but the more I looked into it, the more I've come to the conclusion that there isn't one. The more I read about Gwynn and his shoulder injury, his seasonal age, his roster status (he is out of options), the near term major league prospects, and the longer term outlook, all I can think about is Tom Goodwin.

Goodwin was a plucky outfielder who bounced around to many teams after being a touted rookie coming out of the Dodgers' system in the early '90's. He had a few good seasons in between, but has all the hallmarks us statistically skewed baseball fans have come to associate with interchangeable players: little power, poor plate discipline, and speed. I have to say that I didn't think of the Tom Goodwin comparison until I saw Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections … his name was a comparable to Gwynn (along with Jason Tyner, Jerry Owens, and Tyrell Godwin). Projections are projections, but because I actually watched Tom Goodwin play, it struck a chord. Tom Goodwin and Tony Gwynn are interchangeable, along with a trove of speedy OFs who hit singles and not much else.

I've been a proponent of trading Gwynn the past few years while his perceived value was fairly high (especially amongst some Brewers fans), but now that time has passed and I think it's a reasonable possibility that Gwynn will get through waivers and be at Nashville come April. The one silver lining in Gwynn's future with the major league club is that Cameron will only be around for one more season, beyond this season he's the only viable OF option (placeholder?) for the Brewers. Of course, Gamel could be moved, Hart/Braun could slide over, someone could be traded for … I think Melvin's true feelings about Gwynn were expressed via the failed Cameron trade for Melky (shudder) Cabrera.

So Gwynn's fungible, but that's not saying he is beyond having a few good seasons … I just do not think it will be with the Brewers. I am holding out hope he can be spun to a lesser team (Royals, Pirates) for another arm, or to a team that needs a late inning PR who can play solid defense (Phillies, White Sox). Tony Gwynn would be much more valuable if there weren't so many of him out there.

Related:
KLSnow @ BCB: What's Tony Gwynn's upside?