There are some days of a season where you can honestly point to where things turned around. We won't know until the end of September if yesterday was the day where the Brewers' luck took a major turn, but it definitely has the potential.
Soriano of Chicago and Pujols of St. Louis both went down with both teams still ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central. Both will be out until at least the All-Star Break, gift wrapping an opportunity for the Brewers to make a legitimate run back to the top of the division. If the Brewers win at the rate they have since May 20th (14-7, .667) and the two teams in front falter, the Brewers hopefully will be within three games of the division lead.
Clearly that "falter" caveat is key because the Cubs, even without Soriano, are a good team. However, there is no way they can hold the .636 clip the rest of the season.* Their upcoming schedule is relatively tough: six games against the resurgent White Sox, a road trip to Toronto and Tampa Bay, another west coast trip to San Francisco with a swing through STL on the way home. Certainly one could say something about unfair interleague matchups here, but I'm better than that.
The Cardinals are in a worse talent position than the Cubs, so the Pujols loss will hurt them a touch more (unless Ankiel goes on another hot streak). It's amazing how year after year the Cardinals field a competitive team despite having converted bullpen arms and career backups or afterthoughts (all the more reason to begin fearing Cincinnati in the coming seasons with GM Walt Jocketty, he knows what he's doing). Their schedule, however, is even worse than the Cubs. Sure, they face KC six times, but they also have a three-city road trip through Boston, Detroit, then back to the aforementioned KC. When NL action resumes, they have to play the Mets, Cubs, and then at Philadelphia. I could be a rough month for the Cards.
In comparison to the two above, the Brewers' schedule features many games at home against .500-type teams (sure, they're AL teams, but that means much of their muscle remains on the bench). There is a rough road stretch with stops in Minneapolis, Atlanta, and Arizona, but the outlook is much sunnier than the two teams ahead of them.
What does this mean? Perfect opportunity for the Brewers. I don't think they'll overtake the NL Central unless the Cubs go in the tank and the Brewers rail off 10 straight, but a reasonable estimate puts them right there by July 15. Should the Cubs and Cardinals both show a 15-14 record from today until the All-Star Break, and the Brewers, based on the competition and home games, go 20-10 (.667), then they will be three games out:
Predicted 7/15/08 Standings:
Cubs 57-38
Cards 55-41
Brewers 54-41
I can deal with that. Again, it comes down to execution, let us hope that all that April-May patience has paid off.
* Ryan Dempster, what the hell?
* Edit: Wow! People read these these things!
6 comments:
Maybe you should reread your prediction and check your math. Its completly and utterly WRONG.
Your 8th grade math teacher is rolling in her grave right now.
How do you get from 43-24 to 57-48 in a month? You think the cubs are going to lose as many games in a month as they've lost all season? And only win 14 games?
Sorry, bud. Try drinking something else.
Wow, the anonymous gang is having fun. It's a typo, people. Change the 4 in the Cubs' record to a 3 and all the math in the post is correct.
Hope springs eternal in a Pilots fan's heart.
Math is fixed, thanks for the ad hominem attacks. I want this website to reflect reasonable discussion of topics, so the rage is unnecessary. I, unlike some Brewers fans, actually treat the opposition with some respect and I hope that visitors to this website share the same views. Seriously, I'm predicting the Brewers will cut the division lead of the Cubs by 4.5 games, that's all.
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