TG, Jr: Opportunity Squandered or Value Saved?

In general, Brewers fans are a fickle bunch. This probably doesn't apply to the throngs of fans online (save for the JSOnline Brewers blog commentors), but more so the people who feel the need to call into local shout radio and attend games just to boo former Brewers (ie Jenkins, Cordero, Lee, Molitor, the list goes on). I would like to think the online community can think a little more critically about the home team.

Of course, exceptions do occur, and Tony Gwynn, Jr. is one of those. For the life of me, I can't understand the unconditional love that many have for the guy. Certainly he's gotten a few key
hits and was a perfect foil for the Gabe Gross haters out there, but many also think he should be the Brewers starting CF this season and beyond. I don't see how a low power, low OBP (even if he improves significantly), and good glove CF-only type player can be a stalwart for a team like the Brewers with a guy conquering the minor leagues at a rapid pace. I don't see Gwynn as a Brewer beyond next season, I see him as prime trade bait for a pitcher of some sort. His best use is trade-bait to receive additional major league ready pitching because he is a major league ready CF who is the old definition of a stereotypical lead-off hitter.

I started thinking about the opportunity Gwynn unfortunately squandered by getting injured the first week of the season. It was his golden opportunity to shine, perhaps an audition for 2009 after Cameron moves on, but it didn't work out. It worked out for Gabe Gross even though it didn't show in his stats: he hit the ball hard right at fielders, took a lot of walks, and eventually was dealt to Tampa where he will get a full season of work and put his pinch hitting days behind him (or severely retard them). The Gross trade opened the door for Gwynn to stay on the roster all season long considering the Brewers' lack of LH hitters (and lack of hitters thanks to a pitcher-happy team). End result: squandered but not squandered, Gwynn gets a $391,000 aggregate paycheck, $100 per day in meal money, and gets to pick the brain of one of the best fielding CF's of this era. However, he won't get the necessary at bats to be consistent at the plate, thus hurting his value. Or does it?

I'm of the opinion that a year on the bench on pinch-hit duty, pinch-running, and spot starting isn't going to hurt a player's value. Teams (along with the fans) have an inflated view of Gwynn's ability even though projections don't look too kindly for him at age 25 (PECOTA: .252/.323/.347). Gwynn's absence the first three weeks of the season hid his flaws that would have been exposed with consistent playing time, thus saving his trade value for this off-season. GM's will have to weave dreams about his timely hitting and visions of his father.

Two-thirds of the Brewers' outfield is set: Braun (Brewers own his contract through at least 2012) and Hart (through 2011). That's LF and RF right now, but if Matt LaPorta continues his Braunsian assault on the minors, he'll be with the major league team by Memorial Day 2009. I think Braun has the best, most accurate arm of the three, so he'll switch to RF, Hart to CF, and LaPorta in left (I've always thought of LaPorta as a Pat Burrell-type player with fewer strikeouts). A stopgap LF would be signed (or throw Joltin' Joe Dillon out there), in the interim. It's not unrealistic for this to happen, I can see the future, and it's filled with the greatest OF ever. This ideal situation would leave Gwynn the odd man out.

So what to do? This is why I think Gwynn would be used a hot commodity next winter (and any Brewers fan who sees this as unlikely hasn't been paying attention). Assuming Gwynn stays with the team all season, he will be under control through 2013, so he will be cheap for whomever wants him. The Brewers could decide to keep him, but I don't think his value will increase any more than it will be the next eight months. Looking around the majors, here are a few teams that will be looking for a new CF or looking to rebuild:

Cardinals
Marlins
Rockies
Padres
Giants
Athletics
Rangers

My knowledge of the minor league depth for some teams is lacking, but do any teams here stand out? Why, yes.

The Rangers and Brewers had a deal almost worked out last season that would have sent Gwynn for Otsuka (glad that one fell through). The Rangers now have Josh Hamilton playing CF, but I think he could eventually move to a corner OF spot. The Rangers will more than likely be rebuilding the next summer.

The other team that stands out would be the Padres and not just for the obvious family ties reason. They have the old and almost completely busted Jim Edmonds in center, plus Gwynn would be ideal for that cavernous stadium (and the other cavernous stadiums on the west coast). I think this would be a perfect fit, maybe the Brewers can get Will Inman and Joe Thatcher back.

That would be my master plan. I'm certain Team Canada has already thought of the above, but in my mind, this would be the perfect move. Of course, all bets are off if the Brewers get an offer like the Adam Jones for Erik Bedard deal. I like Gwynn a little bit less than the average Brewers fan, but I'm not so shortsighted to see his value and what the Brewers can get in return for him.