On Your Marks

The Brewers "begin" their season today against their biggest rival 90 minutes south, but probably won't start today. The weather in the area is terrible, so I thank the MLB crew for not starting the Brewers in a, you know, temperate climate for the end of March.

The roster is set (Rivera! You surprise me!) and Ned Yost is saying strange things (I hope he turns those into actions), and most of the predictions are in. Not surprisingly, most are picking the Cubs to win the division (even the computers), but we need look no further than two years ago where the predictions were predictably awry.

I'm not going to let my insufferable love of the Brewers cloud my predictions, I could easily say the Cubs are cursed and that's why they won't win. I think both teams are even and it will come down to the nuances of the schedule and how one will perform better than the other to determine the outcome of the NL Central. I think division predictions using solely numbers is a little off because of the way usage and injuries effect a team's performance, so my predictions are based completely in previous readings up until this point. Here are the factors that won't be uttered this season that will shape the course of the race:

1. Interleague schedule

The Brewers play the Red Sox in Boston for three, against the Twins in Minneapolis for three, and home against the Twins, Blue Jays, and Orioles for three each (15 games total). The Cubs have a home and home series against the White Sox, play at Toronto and Tampa Bay for three each, and home against the Orioles for three each (15). So the Brewers play two of the toughest three teams in the AL East (including the world champ), where the Cubs will be playing two of the worst two in the AL East. The rest is a wash.

2. National League schedule (vs. top teams)

The Brewers and Cubs play the Mets six times each, but the Brewers have one more home game against them. The Cubs have one more game against the Phillies, the Brewers have three (!) more games against the Braves than the Cubs do (and they're all in Atlanta). The Cubs have one more game against the Dodgers (road), and the Brewers one more against the Rockies (away). The Cubs also play the Astros three more times than the Brewers, so that can only work in their favor.

3. National league Central top pitchers

It seems that the NL Central will even be worse this season, or better for the east coast fans because there will be a greater disparity between the top teams and the bottom teams. Division performance will be affected by how many times each team plays each other's ace: Cubs (Zambrano/Hill), Brewers (Sheets/Gallardo), Reds (Harang), Astros (Oswalt), Pirates (Snell/Gorz), Cardinals (Wainwright).

I think the difference will be this small and I certainly hope the Brewers prevail this season. I can see the insufferable Cubs fans having way too high of expectations for Fukudome, Wood, and whomever else just as I can see the Brewers fan point of view should those expected to breakout don't (Weeks) or who don't perform like they did last season (Fielder) or get injured again (Sheets). It'll be fun to watch, though.